The Road to Gold
Written by Rob Perez (follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob)
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There’s no reason to sugarcoat the upcoming Olympic basketball tournament. Much like the NBA, there are the team’s that can actually win the crown and others just there for the experience.
TIER FOUR (THE BASEMENT)
12. China
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Liu Wei
SG: Sun Yue
SF: Zhu Fangyu
PF: Yi Jianlan
C: Wang Zhizhi
When you have to double check the spelling of 3 out of 5 names in a team’s starting roster because you’ve never heard of them before, you know the team is going to struggle to win games.
Let’s be honest, this team plays with a ton of heart, but, they are simply outclassed talent-wise at every position. China does have a front court with extensive NBA experience in Yi Jianlan and Wang Zhizhi … but, coming into the game when your team is up/down by 30 in the 4th quarter doesn’t count as quality minutes.
China will be able to bang around a bit with some of the less experienced, smaller teams as they have EIGHT players on their roster listed at 6’7” or TALLER including 7’3” Zhang Zhaoxu … but, these are the countrymen who let JR Smith drain FOURTNEEN three-pointers and drop 60 points in ONE game. http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/02/jr-smith-scored-60-points-hit-14-threes-in-a-chinese-playoff-game/
If pride counted as points in basketball, China and their loyal fan base would certainly have a leg up on the rest of the competition. However, according to the rules of basketball, it doesn’t – and this team will struggle to score 60 points every single game. Doesn’t fare well for a team that can’t play defense either.
11. Tunisia
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Mourad El-Mabrouk
SG: Marouana Kechrid
SF: Macram Ben Romdhane
PF: Amine Rzig
C: Mehdi Labeyrie-Hafsi
Before you yell: “HEY! China has two NBA players and Tunisia doesn’t have any! Why would you rank Tunisia ahead of them!?” Let me remind you that Tunisia is the reigning FIBA Africa Champion – a VERY competitive tournament with hostile crowds, plenty of NBA talent, and two legitimate squads in Angola and Nigeria.
Also, despite the severe lack of athletic talent, nearly 75% of the entire Tunisian team, and nearly every one of the players that gets play time, plays on one of two Tunisian club teams: Étoile Sportive du Sahel or Ezzahra Sport Rades. This team certainly has ‘chemistry’ down pat which is critical at the international level.
However, Tunisia got their doors blown off at the 2010 FIBA World Championship tournament and trailed Spain 72-38 at the end of the 3Q less than two weeks ago.
Can they hold their own and keep games competitive? Certainly.
Does that mean they have enough talent to win a game in the Olympics? Nope.
If it’s any consolation, I’m listing Tunisia -3.5 (-110) over China.
10. Great Britain
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Nate Reinking
SG: Kyle Johnson
SF: Luol Deng
PF: Pops Mensah-Bonsu
C: Eric Boateng
Have to give credit where credit is due: this squad hung in there with the United States for a quarter and a half, looking like anything but a basketball program that was started just six years ago. (At least Great Britain hoops doesn’t come in with ridiculous expectations like their soccer counterparts in every international competition).
While Great Britain lacks the experience playing as a unit, they make up for it by starting Luol Deng … top 10 Small Forward in the world … and Pops Mensah-Bonsu, a forward with extensive experience carrying a NCAA Division 1 program (George Washington) into the Top 10 and a very valuable NBA role player for the New Orleans Hornets during his tenure.
It’s tough to get a read on Great Britain because 1.) this is their first major basketball tournament other than Eurobasket 2.) We’ve never seen Luol Deng have to be the focal point of an offense before 3.) Pops Mensah-Bonsu played UNBELIEVABLY well in the exhibition game vs. USA … was this a fluke?
Luol Deng’s NBA statistics are very, very impressive … but, let’s be honest – anyone standing in the corner is going to average 15+ points in the NBA when Derrick Rose is attracting five defenders to him in the lane every single night.
Can Luol create his own shots? Can Luol create for his teammates? Can he continue to be one, if not the best perimeter defender in the world, if he has to exert so much energy rebounding/on offense?
These are all questions that we can’t answer until the games begin … however, my hypothesis is that Luol cannot, and this Great Britain team will struggle to compete with the better teams in the tournament — Luol just doesn’t have the creativity on offense to score for 40 straight minutes all by his lonesome. Great Britain’s back court can barely dribble the ball, let alone create scoring opportunities, and their centers look like they just learned how to play basketball via Nintendo Wii and now want to give the real thing a shot.
9. Nigeria
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Tony Skinn
SG: Chamberlain Oguchi
SF: Al-Farouq Aminu
PF: Alade Aminu
C: Ike Diogu
The name, Tony Skinn, sure looks familiar, doesn’t it? It does – and it’s because Tony Skinn was the floor general for the 2005-2006 George Mason squad that made the Cinderella run to the Final Four.
Skinn was not drafted into the NBA. Most players would fade into oblivion and never be heard of again; but, Tony has excelled during his time abroad.
He not only lead his Israeli club, Ironi Ashkelon, in assists the past season(s), but single-handily won Nigeria their Olympic bid against the Dominican Republic in a “Game 7” atmosphere just three weeks ago.
If there’s one thing that’s lacking in this Olympic basketball tournament, it’s premium point guard play. Yes, USA, Spain, and France have it – but most of the lesser teams do not.
Tony has proven that he is absolutely fearless under the spotlight … and when you have veteran NBA Talent down low and on the perimeter (Al-Farouq Aminu and Ike Diogu), it makes the orchestra a hell of a lot easier to conduct.
P.S. After watching him in person for a full year, many of you know I deemed Ike Diogu the best rebounder in the NBA. That’s something that just doesn’t go away, even with injuries. He’ll be cleaning the glass all tourney.
TIER THREE (KNOCKOUT STAGE HOPEFULS)
8. Russia
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Anton Ponkrashov
SG: Alexey Shved
SF: Andrei Kirilenko
PF: Viktor Khryapa
C: Timofey Mozgov
Russia is certainly an interesting squad: three NBA battle-tested players in Timofey Mozgov, Andrei Kirilenko, and Viktor Khryapa — and another one with NBA experience in Alexey Shved (Minnesota Timberwolves). The rest of the roster that receives significant playing time are teammates on Russia’s most storied basketball club: PBC CSKA Moscow. This team has a significant advantage over many nations in the tournament: size.
Their front court is listed at 6’10” (Small Forward), 6’9” (Power Forward), and 7’1” (Center).
More importantly: these guys can score – they aren’t big trees that take up space in the lane like many bigs in this tournament are programmed to do.
Kirilenko’s versatility is this team’s biggest advantage. During his glory years in the NBA, he was able to stretch the floor and drain threes at will. This pulled larger defenders away from the basket, and in turn, opened the lane for the rest of his Jazz teammates. He is a 6’10” forward who can shoot over anyone he wants, and when Kirilenko is on, it allows Russia’s interior players, Khryapa and Mozgov, to roam around the basket effectively.
However, Kirilenko is no longer in the NBA because he lost touch with his game. One day, it seemed like the ‘Monstars’ from Space Jam invaded EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT and stole his ability to shoot (from 2008-2011, shot a woeful 31% from 3PT land and 47% from the field on an average of 8 attempts per game).
Russia’s success in this tournament hinges on his ability to create for the rest of the team, which is exactly why they are 8th in our Power Rankings — their back court will struggle to dribble the ball across half court against the superior teams, create for Kirilenko, and while he is currently capable of putting this team on his back, you can’t count on it because the second he goes cold … this team has no chance of scoring in the half-court.
Good news for Russia, however: Blake Griffin is OUT for the entire Olympic tournament.
7. Australia
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Patty Mills
SG: Joe Ingles
SF: Mark Worthington
PF: Matthew Nielsen
C: David Andersen
Speaking of sneaky-good back court talent, we stumble upon arguably the best 1-2 punch of Point Guards outside of Team USA: Patty Mills and 6th man, Matthew Dellavedova.
Patty Mills has not gained the recognition he deserves because he is currently the 3rd string PG on the San Antonio Spurs, behind Tony Parker and Gary Neal, but let me remind you that Patty Mills could start on ½ of the NBA teams not named the “San Antonio Spurs.”
When Greg Popovich benched his starters for a two-week period during the month of May – in anticipation for the playoffs – Patty Mills was finally unleashed to the public, wrecking the likes of PHX, GSW, and UTA (all in a row) with masterful 20 point and/or 10 assist performances.
You heard it here first: Patty Mills will single-handily drag Australia into the knockout stage of this year’s Olympic Basketball Tournament.
His wingman and fellow St. Mary’s Alum, Matthew Dellavedova, does not have the NBA or extensive international experience that Patty Mills does. However, we saw from this most recent NCAA Basketball Season: he is a man amongst boys and is ready for the next level. He can get in the lane whenever he wants, no matter who is guarding him.
While this team lacks talent in the front court, they make up for it with sheer size. Australia’s starting front court AVERAGES 6’9”, and most importantly, knows their role: Play Defense, rebound, and clear the lane for Patty Mills and Dellavedova.
This scrappy bunch will open eyes with their creative team play, but can they run with the likes of the United States, Spain, or Argentina in a knock out game for 40 straight minutes? Unfortunately not.
TIER TWO (BATTLE FOR THE BRONZE)
6. Brazil
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Marcelinho Huertas
SG: Leandro Barbosa
SF: Marcus Vinicus
PF: Anderson Varejao
C: Nene/Tiago Splitter
This Brazilian squad sports some serious flash, NBA experience, and size.
Not only are the Brazilians “big”, they are arguably the best offensive front court in the entire tournament.
In their exhibition game against the United States, we found out everything about Brazil that we need to know:
1) They can score inside whenever they want
2) They get every rebound that doesn’t shank back out to the three point line
3) They have a legitimate “closer” in Leandro Barbosa, who seems to transform into the best FIBA scorer in the world whenever he takes off his NBA jersey and puts on his Brazil one
4) They LOVE the loose FIBA officiating, as Anderson Varejao is a rebounding/defensive monster who causes havoc for 40 straight minutes.
5) They have NO-ONE who can create
Four great traits about this team are all negated because of #5. We saw it against the United States and we’re going to see it against the rest of the world’s elite: THEY DON’T HAVE A POINT GUARD.
Huertas has NO chance out there against semi-decent defenders – and this is a serious problem, because Barbosa, Nene, Splitter, and Varejao can’t create their own shots. No doubt that these NBA Vets can score the ball, but let’s be honest: when was the last time you saw Anderson Varejao put the ball on the floor? That’s what I thought.
This team will struggle to close teams out when the pressure is on and defenses go into ‘survival mode’, simply because they cannot create their own shots in the half court.
What we learned from this year’s NBA Finals is going to haunt Brazil all tournament: interior dominance means nothing when your guards can’t score.
5. France
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Tony Parker
SG: Nicolas Batum
SF: Mickael Gelabale
PF: Boris Diaw
C: Ronny Turiaf
Not a whole lot to talk about here, but let’s preach to the choir just in case someone in the crowd has been in a coma the past ten years …
Tony Parker, Tony Parker, Tony Parker.
He was arguably the MVP of the 2012 NBA Regular Season and magnifies every French player’s capabilities with his extraordinary ball-handling, vision, and finishing ability.
For example: Nicolas Batum is a deadly three-point shooter – not without Tony Parker.
For example: Boris Diaw (don’t laugh) is a legitimate NBA scorer – not without Tony Parker.
For example: Ronny Turiaf will actually score a point in a professional basketball game – not without Tony Parker.
You can’t count France out of any game, but, Tony Parker will have to put together the best month of career to have a legitimate shot to beat the top-shelf talent.
Can he still do it at age 30? Yes.
Will he? TBD….
4. Argentina
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Pablo Prigioni
SG: Manu Ginobili
SF: Carlos Delfino/Andres Nocioni
PF: Luis Scola
C: Juan Pedro Gutierrez
A lot of experts don Argentina as the second best team in the world – It’s not farfetched, but, I have to step in here and disagree.
One recommendation when handicapping FIBA/International basketball: DO NOT OVERVALUE NBA PLAYERS.
The best international teams in the world are COHESIVE units. They play as a TEAM.
Team play is so vital to FIBA success because whistles are rarely blown … A lot of ticky-tack fouls that get called in the NBA do NOT get called in FIBA; therefore, you need to be able to score easy buckets around the rim and get open wide-open perimeter looks to score points consistently.
Argentina has plenty of NBA talent, but do I think they are a better TEAM than the remaining three elite squads? I do not.
What I learned from Argentina’s terrific display against the United States this past Sunday: they rely too much on Manu Ginobili in the 4Q.
YES, they came storming back and almost WON the game because of him.
YES, he is an elite talent that DESERVES to be iso’d down the stretch.
YES, Manu makes every one of his teammates better.
HOWEVER – what I was watching when Manu was taking Kobe Bryant one-on-one down the stretch was the rest of his team bird-watching. If Manu wasn’t flawless like he was, the USA blows that game open by 20+ points late. No-one was rebounding, no-one was moving, no-one was getting back on defense.
An elite squad, no doubt, but I’ve seen this with Argentina one too many times: You simply cannot defeat the following three teams without a total team effort in the 4Q.
3. Lithuania
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Mantas Kalnietis
SG: Martynas Pocius
SF: Jonas Maciulis
PF: Linas Kleiza
C: Jonas Valanciunas
#THINGSYOUARETHINKING:
“Wait, who!?”
“I’ve never heard of anyone on that team. Are you nuts?”
“Didn’t this team almost fail to qualify for this year’s Olympics?”
I understand your frustration: This squad is not a team you are going to see on SportsCenter, YouTube, or your local And 1 mixtape.
How dare I rank Lithuania as the 3rd best team in the Olympics? Well, let me explain…
– Lithuania is TWELVE deep.
- They are Twelve deep for a reason. They foul the **** out of any one that enters the lane. If you could clone the 1990s ‘Thugball’ Knicks into a modern-day international basketball team, Lithuania would be it. They define “no easy buckets” and make sure they use all 60 fouls (5 per player in FIBA) before the game is over. Lithuania makes you earn every single point, and it’s a defensive philosophy they pride themselves on.
– Lithuania is the best TEAM in the Olympics
- Notice that I bolded, italicized, and underlined the word “team” because I wanted to emphasize Lithuania’ superior team chemistry vs. every other squad – not because they are going to win the Gold Medal. You will notice this team has about 50 half-court plays and they ALWAYS seem to work.
- How is Valanciunas ALWAYS open!? Why do they convert EVERY back door screen!? How does Lithuania get EVERY damn rebound!? IS THERE ANYONE ON THE FLOOR GUARDING MARTYNAS POCIUS!? …. These are a few of many things you are going to be yelling at your television screen if you bet against Lithuania – these guys know how to play as a single unit, and you will get San Antonio Spurs déjà vu every time they step on the court together.
– Jonas Valanciunas is a star
- This seven-foot monster is a rare talent. Think: Andrea Bargnani and Nene merging into one human being (Ew, Gross) … The result is the basketball talent named Jonas Valanciunas. He is Lithuania’s heartbeat, is responsible for all of their crunch-time scoring (either by himself or creating for his teammates), and can single-handily carry his team to victory whether someone is creating for him or not … Jonas will not be a secret anymore after the 2012 Olympic Games.
TIER ONE (THE ELITE)
2. Spain
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: Rudy Fernandez
SF: Juan Carlos Navarro
PF: Pau Gasol
C: Marc Gasol/Serge Ibaka
We can try and hype up the other ten competitors in this Olympic tournament, but you and I both know it’s Spain and USA’s tournament to lose.
I, for one, am not the child who touches the hot stove a second time to see if it’s still hot.
What on Earth does that mean?
Well, in the 2012 NBA Finals, we witnessed a team with a superior ‘size’ advantage get ran off the court four out of five times by a team with superior ‘speed’.
The NBA game has changed dramatically this past decade. It’s not about coaching, x’s and o’s, or fundamentals … it’s about: “How many superstars do you have?” and/or “How athletic is your team?”
Now, FIBA is a completely different dialect from the NBA, but we saw the Miami Heat do it to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and we’re going to see it again this year in the inevitable matchup between Spain and the USA:
- ‘size’ cannot guard ‘speed’
- ‘size’ can score only score in the half-court against ‘speed’
- ‘speed’ can guard ‘size’
- ‘speed’ wears down ‘size’
- ‘speed’ can score multiple ways against ‘size’
The Gasol brothers + Serge Ibaka are elite talents. Ibaka is quite possibly the most athletic player in the entire tournament ,and can guard just about anyone. However, Spain only has one Ibaka (athletically) and the USA has about 11 (sorry, Kevin Love).
For Spain to upset the USA, they will have to turn the contest into a 100% half-court affair. The United States has shown they have zero interior/low-post scoring & creativity outside of Carmelo Anthony, and also proven to be susceptible to offensive rebounding.
The Gasol brothers must DOMINATE on OFFENSE to pull an upset.
Why offense? Because the United States runs one offensive play outside of isolation — and it’s called: “Outlet!!!!” When a team takes a bad shot against USA or turns the ball over, it takes all of five seconds before CP3 gets the ball and is converting a half-court alley oop to LeBron James or Kevin Durant.
If the exhibition games are any sign of what’s to come: the 2012 USA team will go down in history as the best defensive basketball team EVER.
With that said, USA’s best offense is their defense. Once they get a turnover, it looks like a rat race to the hoop … which NBA all-star/MVP can get to the rim first? Winner gets a free two points and a SportsCenter highlight!
If the Gasol brothers can control the pace of play by scoring in the post, get rebounds, not turn the ball over, PLAY BIG, and create their own shots – Spain has a serious shot at pulling the upset of the decade.
In addition, Jose Calderon and Rudy Fernandez will have to either turn back the clock or find a way to stay in front of CP3, Russell Westbrook, and Deron Williams. While Spain’s backcourt is “elite” compared to the other ten nations, it is at a serious athletic disadvantage vs. the US and will be exposed dramatically if the Americans get out into transition.
With Ricky Rubio sidelined, Jose Calderon has no-one to spell him at the end of the 1Q/3Q. To defeat the United States, Calderon is going to have to play the full 40 minutes and drain every single one of his open threes. …A lot to ask from someone who can’t guard his own shadow.
1. United States of America
Good luck, world.
