Tackling Thursday NFL
We won’t have to wait until November for Thursday football in 2012
Written by Justin Zovas
This past February, amidst the media frenzy that is Super Bowl week, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell revealed a schedule change that made gamblers and fans alike rejoice. The upcoming 2012 football season will feature an increase in Thursday night football games which of course creates another stand alone football betting opportunity. In addition to the previously abbreviated Thursday options, NFL network will be airing Thursday night football games beginning in week 2. With the new schedule make-up, every team will be given the opportunity to showcase their talents (or lack thereof) under the lights in front of a national audience. More prime-time football will obviously makes gamblers happy because they’ll find an edge to exploit the shortened week.
There is a reason NFL games are only played once a week and it boils down to the rigorous demands of the sport. Asking a team to play on just three days’ rest is a demanding task given the normal recovery from both the mental and physical side. The quick turnaround makes it difficult for players to rebound from their previous game and get adequate time for treatments and preparation. Toss nagging injuries and long distance travel into the equation and suddenly the road weary side faces a rather steep challenge when facing superior competition.
With these factors in mind, here are some Thursday night trends to be aware of heading into the 2012 season:
Home teams on Thursday nights after both teams played the previous Sunday are 55-40-2 ATS since 1989. When the home team is also favored under the same conditions, the favorite is 37-18-2 ATS. That means betting Thursday night home favorites has been successful 67.3% of the time and from my vantage point the logic here is relatively simple: Not only does the home team gain from not having to travel but the “better team” benefits immensely from the increased prep time and overall talent discrepancy.
In addition to home favorites domination ATS, under bettors also profit in these Thursday night contests going 56-41. In games where the home team is listed as the favorite, the trend improves to a 67% clip (under is 38-19). Clearly, the shortened week appears to result in defenses having a substantial edge over offenses.
With public money pouring in on these fresh, new Thursday night football games, your main takeaway is this; home favorites and the UNDER should warrant long consideration before you place your bets.
