Winning at Wimbledon: The Bettor’s Guide
by Adam Chemerinsky (follow him on twitter for great tennis advice @gamblingkings)
The old saying says the grass is always greener on the other side could not be truer than when you talk about betting tennis. Fortunately for those that struggled at the French Open, its time to kick the dirt off and get ready for the ultimate fortnight in tennis. Wimbledon features a unique betting opportunity because there are only a handful of tournaments each year played on grass and the surface caters to a very select kind of player. You have certain members of the tour who will play Wimbledon as their lone grass court tournament of the entire year and as a result, there is money to be made with extreme value in the early rounds before the books catch up to players current form.
Just like the betting strategy we employed for the French Open, I suggest playing the early rounds for a very small bet size and waiting until the third and fourth rounds to gradually increase bet size. Wimbledon features plenty of opportunities and I suggest a high volume of plays at smaller units early before the caliber of tennis increases.
I encourage everyone to stay away from betting on players outside the top 20 entirely for the first week unless you can find them at + money. There are the rare players who prefer grass to hard and clay courts that typically enter hot like Tommy Haas and Andy Roddick (who both enter Wimbledon coming off grass court titles). Past performances on grass can create a gross over valuation of certain players regardless of their current form. Those that fall into this mix right now include Feliciano Lopez, Xavier Malisse and Ivo Karlovic. There are also unique talents like Milos Raonic who project to be lethal on the grass but have not broken through just yet but still continue to be tremendously over valued on a match by match basis. From my vantage point, any players mentioned on this list can’t be considered until they’re priced reasonably as underdogs.
My short list of players whose game suits grass and are undervalued in 2012:
Steve Darcis, Edouard-Roger Vasselin, Istomin, Llodra, Benoit Paire, Dodig (You will hear a lot of people picking him to beat Nadal second round)
The over in the early rounds is your friend!
In grass court mens tennis, there should rarely be broken service games among elite level players. Tiebreaks generally decide a majority of the sets and matches tend to go the distance more than on any other surface. For example: in the twenty-four completed matches in Eastbourne last week, fifteen tiebreaks were played. Twelve matches went the distance (all occuring before the quarterfinals) showing early on in the tournament matches become marathons not sprints when there are two big servers and there isn’t a huge talent disparity.
First round matchups to explore the over
Darcis vs Ruffin (Darcis is an over machine)
Istomin vs Seppi
Almagro vs Rochus (Almagro has a losing career record on grass but should have enough game to eventually beat the shortest player in the draw)
Muller vs. Benneteau
Harrison vs Lu: based on their match last week it is hard not to love the over)
Querrey vs Popsili: hard to imagine many breaks in this match and Posili will come in with belief after having match point last week vs Querrey: rematches within a week only builds familiarity and lends itself to closer results.
On top of matches frequently going the distance, you will see a lot of tiebreakers between players able to hold serve and build confidence. When these players don’t fall behind a break early in the set, there is value to be made betting underdogs to cover against top players especially catching nine or more games.
Seeded players who are not meant for grass
Don’t be fooled by the number next to their name on players like Grannollers, Monaco (0-4 career Wimbledon record), David Ferrer (don’t let last week’s title fool you, he beat a player outside the top 100 in the finals) will not live up to their seed and should have early exits. As a result, the true value seeker will look to exploit potential inefficiencies in the betting line and fade these players when opportunity presents itself.
Non seeded players who are basically coming for the appearance check and have no chance to win a match: Pablo Andujar, James Blake, Montanes, Bogomolov, Donald Young.
Remember, have some fun with tennis but use the early rounds as scouting for making a bigger score when you can capitalize on lines built on perception rather than reality.
