Myth: Power Ratings = Pointspreads
Power ratings are just one of many tools that bookmakers use to determine point spreads. Let me repeat that; they’re just GUIDES bookmakers use to determine point spreads and should never be confused with the actual point spreads themselves. Everyone in the business has his (or her) own opinion and more often than not we don’t value every team across all sports the exact same way. To quote Shakespeare if he were a bookmaker, therein lies the rub…when it comes to establishing openers.
Books don’t operate in a vacuum in the age of the internet and too much deviation from the market price as a linemaker creates arbitrage for sharper bettors. Suffice to say it explains why no matter how different a line may be when it first hits the market, it will eventually gravitate towards the same price point whether the shop is located in London, Las Vegas, or Reno. However, the true skill displayed by the sharpest bookmakers is understanding how to utilize the variance between what the market says a line should be and true power number to steer the action to a position of strength.
For example, if power numbers indicate a line should be 3 points different than the market, you can’t ignore everyone else and hang a 6 when the world’s at a 3. Instead, the objective is to shade the price just enough (say 3, -125 in football) realizing that any sharp bettor who shares the same power numbers or thought process on a game as you will be discouraged from betting the “correct side” at your shop. The reality is if you hang a vastly different number, you stop being a bookmaker and become a gambler. By remaining stubborn and putting your stake in the ground and ignoring market fluidity through proper risk management techniques, even the bookmaker that’s right 60% of the time would be on the unemployment line.
