Prop Culture: Attacking the NBA Finals
Written by Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype)
You wanna know why we put up with the months of public jousting over BRI, “flex cap” and a repeater tax? This is why.
Some playoff matchups are so comprehensively soaked in narrative that their ticket to NBA lore is virtually ensured, irrespective of quality of play. Others earn a place in the pantheon through monumental performances and moments; sometimes the stars simply align on both fronts.
On the a heels of a wildly entertaining conference finals, one that treated NBA fans to all but one of 14 possible games, the sporting gods have bestowed upon us a Finals matchup filled to the brim with star power, awe-inspiring talent, and Sweeps-worthy storylines:
Fresh-faced newcomers vs. the sport’s most reviled crew
Dynasty-in a-Box vs. Draft-and-Develop.
Young vs. well, Slightly Less Young.
Derek Fisher’s pursuit of Michael Jordan.
Flash and The Beard in a flop-off for the ages.
One of the NBA’s best scoring outfits led by the league’s most devastating attacker, fresh off a stellar performance against a star-studded opponent whose veteran savvy looked as though it might be a deciding factor. By his one side an obscenely gifted, if occasionally maddening, perimeter running mate for whom a defined role is not easily defined and by the other, a versatile star – without whom the season might have ended prematurely – whose incredible talent, while recognized, often does not receive top billing.
And the Oklahoma City Thunder will be there too.
As always, matchups will be key, as will in-/inter-game adjustments by Erik Spoelstra and Scott Brooks in response to mismatches that emerge. From a prop perspective, this matchup features as star-studded and public a cast as the league can offer outside of All-Star Weekend. Thus, fading opportunities will abound, though prop players will want to guard against getting too clever for their own good. These guys are not at the pinnacle of NBA fame because of their personalities alone, talent does play a role.
Speaking of which…
Kevin Durant – A classic, old-school superstar, Durant has scored no fewer than 28 in four outings against the LeBron-era Heat; three times shooting better than 52% from the field. He’s played fewer than 38 minutes once this postseason – with 41+ in nine of his last 10 games – dropping 25+ in 12 of 15 games, with 30+ in three of his last five. He’s shot 47% or better in 11 of his last 13 games, and earned 78 free throw attempts in his last nine games (at least six in each), making 69 (88.4%). Conversely, he’s rather adept at avoiding foul trouble himself, having committed 4+ fouls just three times in the playoffs.
Among players not named LeBron James, KD remains the player most worthy of bettors’ faith. That said, that he will be checked by the aforementioned LBJ and that can potentially be problematic. Durant will not lack opportunities but hanging 30+ on the league’s best perimeter defender is a tall order. As with Bosh, a one-game wait-and-see approach may prove prudent.
Russell Westbrook – Define “volume scoring.”
Russ has averaged 20 per in his last four regular season meetings with the Heat, but only once – a 9-for-26 gem on April 4 of this year – hit more than a third of his shots. On the bright side for bettors backing OKC’s lead guard, he earned 29 free throw attempts in those games, converting 27, and twice reached 30+ points and assists.
Westbrook has been – as he tends to be –maddeningly productive over the past month. In 11 games since the opener of the Lakers series, he’s both scored at least 21 points and combined for 30+ P+A seven times, while also seven times each (not necessarily in the same game), failing to hit 42% of his shots or hand out more than five assists.
However, as Durant has turned up his game, Russ has done well to not only adjust, but keeping pace as well. Since Game 2 against the Spurs, he’s posted 30+ P+A three times, on each occasion tallying at least eight assists. This, combined with the fact that he will spend much of the coming week running some combination of Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Shane Battier and a sub-100% D-Wade ragged, is why Westbrook gets my vote as not only OKC’s most likely outperformer, but dark horse (+800) MVP candidate.
James Harden – That Harden now owns real estate alongside the NBA’s elite backcourt stars is justified, as is his upgrade to Option 2a in the OKC pecking order.
Harden’s postseason, while no longer historic, continues sparking fear at the same rate at the betting window these days. In his last 9 games, Harden has topped 16 points (his scoring lines oscillate between 16 and 17) seven times, and continues to boast a massive 62.6% True Shooting Percentage (23.7 PER).
Additionally, for reasons similar to those pertaining to Westbrook – namely the absence of a wing defender capable of keeping him out of the paint – Harden is poised for a strong series. Those looking for an upside surprise from the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year will find ample opportunity throughout this series.
And in the red corner…
LeBron James – On Tuesday night, LeBron James kicks off one of the most scrutinized Finals appearance of the past 30 years (Jordan in 1996 & 1998 and Magic Johnson in 1985 are in the running as well). If Captain Contrarian, the body of work from the past week – a top-10 all-time performance on the road facing elimination and 11 fourth quarter points in a 13-point Game 7 win – have not deterred you from fading one of the greatest-ever playoff runs in NBA history, I don’t know what to tell you.
Cite his disappearance in last year’s Finals or his penchant for playing hot potato in crunch time; construct a numbers-based case around the fact that LeBron has topped 31 points (his presumptive scoring line in this series) just once in four games against OKC as a member of the Miami Heat and you will technically be correct. Hell, you might even make a couple of bucks going against the King but you’ll also be the guy risking actual legal tender against a force of nature that’s fallen short of 27 points three times since May 10.
Don’t be that guy.
Those truly desperate to cash a ticket fading LBJ might look at his rebounds + assists lines, which have crept up to a hefty ~16, a mark he’s hit just seven times this postseason and – thanks to five assists or fewer in each outing – just once in his last five games.
But really, has making money become so easy that you’re actively seeking out new challenges?
Dwyane Wade – My “don’t bet against greatness” rule of thumb identifies fading Wade as a less-than-optimal strategy for accumulating wealth. However, while Wade remains one of the very best basketball players on Earth, he’s scoring neither big nor efficiently enough to warrant blanket “look to play or stay away” status.
In the aftermath of as atrocious a playoff performance as one will see from a bona fide superstar, Wade saw his scoring lines dip to roughly 23.5. Three games, 99 points and an emphatic closeout of the Pacers later, they’d spiked in some cases to as high as 27. Were we to pretend that Games 4-6 against Indy had zero impact on the prevailing lines, Wade still would have paid out once in seven games against Boston. Though he’s likely to once again get the fluid in his left knee drained, operating at less than 100% in a series in which his duties will include defending either Russell Westbrook or James Harden while attacking a Serge Ibaka-protected rim, possibly against a jumper-inducing zone defense, does not seem conducive to consistently scoring 25+.
Those in search of value might find it on the rebound + assist front. Wade has topped 10 (the average line) in seven of his last 10 games, and eight R+A in nine of ten. It’s worth noting, however, that while he’s had at least eight rebounds + assists in three of his last four against OKC, only once (in January 2011) did he actually reach double figures.
Chris Bosh – Herein lies the rub of the Chris Bosh value proposition: the fantastic Game 7 performance (19 points, 8-of-10 FG, 3-of-4 3-pointers, 8 rebounds) that helped punch Miami’s ticket to a second straight Finals likely drained some value from his prop lines.
His physical condition still uncertain, most books wisely opted against posting lines that could prove wildly optimistic or pessimistic. With Bosh presumably back near full strength, look for his point + rebound lines to return to their regular season level of 24.5/25. Though he failed to reach 25 P+R in either 2011-12 meeting with OKC – who gave up a combined 69 points and rebounds to Tim Duncan in Games 5 and 6 – he did so in both meetings last season and should play a vital role in trying to draw OKC’s bigs out of the lane. With that said, one would be prudent to use Game 1 as an opportunity to observe Bosh’s play against Perkins and Ibaka before committing any capital.
Mario Chalmers – There is not a person walking the planet that feels about Mario Chalmers’ shot the way that Mario Chalmers feels about Mario Chalmers’ shot. With an implicit self-confidence that borders delusional, not to mention an undisputed starting gig and two of the world’s best creators of open jump shots, for better or worse, ‘Rio will be heard from on a regular basis.
Chalmers has been a factor in these playoffs, averaging 11.6 points and 3.9 assists per game, while hitting 44% of his shots. Five times he’s handed out 6+ assists (four times at home), seven he’s scored at least a dozen points (five on the road) and nine times (three times at home, six on the road) has produced the 15+ points and assists needed to cash a (usually better-than-even-money) over ticket.
While I’m here, I suppose a prediction is in order. My greatest conviction lies in the belief that this series lives up to the hype. It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which at least six games are unnecessary. The call is OKC in 7, though, despite the shame it will bring upon my village, my rooting lean is toward Miami.
