New York State of Mind
Written by @kyderbyjay
This was supposed to be an entirely different article. This was supposed to be about the coronation of a champion, the end of a jinx. However, fate intervened in the form of tendonitis in the leg of the great I’ll Have Another, and that article has been scrapped.
Yes, they will still run the Belmont Stakes in New York on Saturday, at the always-challenging distance of a mile and a half. This is as far as any of these horses have ever run, and it’s likely the farthest they will ever run. The Belmont is a race that can pretty much be won with any style. A speed horse can walk to a victory if the fractions are generous, and a closer can come charging down that long stretch with the right pace to run at — there isn’t a magical winning formula. So, as always, picking the winner is as much about figuring out how the race will be run, as it is about figuring out the right horse.
If there’s any bright spot in I’ll Have Another’s defection, it’s that the race suddenly looks much more interesting and betable. Here’s my look at what’s left of the 2012 Belmont field:
Still Have No Shot
Five Sixteen is bred to run long, but he may the slowest horse I’ve seen entered in a Triple Crown race in quite some time…Guyana Star Dweeji will be a huge price, and deservedly so. Just has no business being entered in a graded stakes, much less an elite race like the Belmont…Ravalo’s Boy looks incapable of competing with the top choices, even on his best day…Unstoppable U figures to be a pace factor early but the only way he has a shot is iff the race just completely breaks down, and he gets a crazy-slow lead. That looks doubtful and I can’t recommend using him at all…Atigun was highly-regarded at some point in the year, but he has proven absolutely nothing so far. It’s possible that he wakes up and runs a credible race but even then I don’t see him as doing much more than crashing the back end of the exotics…Optimizer, oh Optimizer. Let’s review what we wrote about him in the Kentucky Derby: “this one looks well overmatched”; and in the Preakness: “I see no reason that anything is different two weeks later. His entry here reeks of D. Wayne Lukas wanting to be involved in the action, and nothing more.” Three weeks later? Yea, no change of opinion.
Maybe, Just Maybe
My Adonis is likely to be lightly-regarded in this spot, and should certianly offer exceptional betting value if you can find a reason to like him. There are worse reasons than to consider that the same owner-trainer connections scored a nice upset at 24-1 in last year’s Belmont with Ruler On Ice. My Adonis has been given seven weeks off, after barely missing the Kentucky Derby field and enters as the freshest horse in the field. I’ve been intrigued by the raves I’ve personally heard from connections at Belmont this week, and, while I would certainly be surprised to see him win, I will certainly be using him on some of my tickets…Paynter enters as the “wise-guy” horse, and is likely to offer very little legitimate betting value, especially with the absence of I’ll Have Another. He scored a very nice (and fast) win on the Preakness undercard, but I personally don’t feel that he’s going to be a 1 1/2 mile horse. He could certainly get loose on an easy lead, and cruise to victory, but I don’t think Unstoppable U is going to let that happen. Many thought he’d get revenge for his trainer Bob Baffert and Bodemeister, but with no I’ll Have Another, there’s nothing to get revenge on. Possible, but I don’t see it.
The Big Boys
Union Rags has been quite the enigma, a horse whose backers seem to have an excuse every time: Wide trip, pace was a problem, major traffic problems and you name it there’s always something. With I’ll Have Another no longer a force to deal with, Union Rags is suddenly staring at possible favortism. Looking to change his luck, trainer Michael Matz made a jockey switch from Julien Leparoux to John Velazquez. Velazquez seemed confident, even before I’ll Have Another scratched, saying, “If he breaks well in the Belmont and gets a good position where he’s comfortable, with that nice stride he has and a controlled pace, I think he definitely has a really good chance to win the whole thing.” I agree, and he looms a big factor in this field…Dullahan, third in the Kentucky Derby, has been lying in wait for the past five weeks, and has had everyone at Belmont raving this week about visually pleasing he has looked. Color me skeptical. He is what he is—a slow closer, whose best races have all come on synthetic surfaces. As to his 3rd in the Derby, I actually thought he was probably only the 6th best horse that day, and probably acheived 3rd more on racing luck than anything. I don’t think he’s going to handle a 1 1/2 whatsoever, and while I feel like he has to be used in some exotics based on how weak the field is, I don’t consider him a win candidate.
And The Winner Is…
Street Life. Wait, what? Yep, Street Life, a lightly-raced son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, is poised to be the biggest beneficiary from I’ll Have Another’s injury. He’s raced five times, and has improved every time out. He’s gained significant ground in every one of his races, but for his maiden. He seems to have the perfect running style to pull of the upset, and is certainly bred to run all day. (In addition to Street Sense, his dam’s sire is 1996 Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, who also sired 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone—who in turn sired 2009 Belmont winner Summer Bird.) It’s certainly possible that he just isn’t good enough, and will be exposed…but in a race where the known-qualities aren’t particularly appealing, why not go with an unknown-quality with a lot of upside. I’m playing with house money after the Derby/Preakness scores on I’ll Have Another, so we’ll take a big stab here — Street Life is your 2012 Belmont winner.
