Firing at the French
by Adam Chemerinksy (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings)
The second grand slam is finally here. For novice tennis bettors, the easiest way to bet on a tournament is to simply pick the winner of the match: sounds easy enough right? Forget set betting and betting the tennis spread but rather just stick to money line wagering and remember that the Grand Slam lasts two weeks, so it is a marathon– not a sprint– with your bankroll. Here are a few tips to help get you through the tournament…
Betting individual matches
The early rounds, like all single elimination tournaments, feature tons of matches and an opportunity to find a few softer prices for the well trained eye. With a beginner’s mentality in mind, my recommendation is to focus on the following methods and pin point a few matches you feel strongly about rather than peppering the board with action. The following 4 steps are what I employ before considering a trip to the window and placing a bet.
1) Make sure you know how your player has performed on clay over the last two years
It sounds simple enough since it’s the only Slam played on this surface. There are only a few tour events played on clay each year but many novice bettors won’t change their betting style based on this essential determinant. Flat out; surface matters because some players thrive on the dirt, while others never figure it out (Andy Roddick I’m looking right at you!!!). David Ferrer and Nicholas Almagro have the most clay court wins so far this year and always bear watching at the French. In fact, for years, both players have been known as “dirtballers” (players who rack up significant wins during the Clay court season). The clay typically favors players who like to construct longer points and who move well laterally. Players like Andy Roddick, Kevin Anderson and Andy Murray are much stronger players on faster surfaces, such as hard court than they are on clay. This doesn’t mean that some hard court players don’t also perform well on clay since guys like Thomas Berdych, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokavic perform well on every surface. One of the men you’d least expect to play well at Roland Garros is big serving John Isner but unlike most of his American counterparts, he’s had some good results on clay including today’s opening straight set victory. Moreover, weather conditions and the precise stadium also directly impact how fast the the dirt will play. However until you master these subtleties, simply understand that a players’ overall ranking will not matter that much in trying to figure out the likely victor if you don’t know whose game is built for a particular surface.
2) Know the head to head record vs opponent.
Like a batter facing a pitcher in baseball, some players are comfortable looking to the other side of the net and seeing a familiar face, at least one they know won’t offer much resistance. Some players simply have confidence, or match up well against others for inexplicable reasons. You can discover this information on Atptour.com and pretty easily look up the head to head record. Spend most of your focus on how they’ve performed on clay against one another but don’t ignore the other surfaces either since confidence from the hard courts doesn’t just dissipate.
3) Hot and Cold players
We won’t be running through the quad to the gymnasium but knowing whose streaking can pay serious dividends. Like any sport, be aware of current form when looking to back a player who comes in playing well and fade those struggling entering the event. Confidence and momentum matter a lot in tennis so you need to be cautious picking a player who is coming into Roland Garros without any clay court victories, and therefore, a lack confidence.
Hot players / players who caught my eye with current form
Almagro, Simon, Berlocq, Berdych, Mayer
Cold players/ players who look fatigued and injured
Donald Young, Feliciano Lopez, Stakhovsky, Gael Monfils (withdrew), John Isner
Players with past success at Roland Garros come in under the radar but have shown they can rise to the occasion
Juan Ignacio Chela, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Dolgpolov
4.) Consider the intangibles
Weather: the hotter the temperature the faster the court will generally play. This favors the big hitters as well as the players in better physical condition.
Court assignment and scheduled match time: If a player is assigned the last match of the day, there is no way to know what time he will hit the courts because his start time is at the mercy of how long previous matches take. Back the veterans in the last matches of the day because they know how to prepare for a lengthy wait while a youngster tends to bring nervous energy to the court.
Things that are overrated and you don’t need to assess: Motivation (this is a major –every player is motivated);
“Homefield” advantage: I don’t think being French is a huge intangible this week. For the most part, the French players are put in big stadiums where the crowd won’t be as big of a factor. However, if a player is on an outside court where the fans are packed in, it can change the dynamic. Most of the French players, except Tsonga, seem to react to the pressure in an unproductive way on native soil. At least for the top French players, the expectations placed on them often lead to early exits.
Players to watch: the following players will provide good value in the early rounds Berlocq, Melzer, Monaco, Ramos, Fognini, Andujar
Players to bet against: Roddick, Kevin Anderson.
As with all uncharted territory, use the French to test your handicapping but don’t get in over your head. Besides, it’s only the 2nd of the 4 majors so we’ll have plenty of time to make you an expert by then.
