War of Attrition: Bayern Munich vs Chelsea
Contributed by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
The finale of the Champions League takes place today when Bayern Munich plays Chelsea at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Both teams have battled adversity to reach this night with Bayern playing 14 games (as they had to pre-qualify) and Chelsea having 12 encounters along the way. Both teams were dogs in their respective semi finals as they faced the might of the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Incredible performances saw each side triumph and earn their place in this prestigious showpiece event.
Chelsea snatched an amazing 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona with a resolute defensive display showing true English spirit. Their 2-2 away result in the Nou Camp in Barcelona was achieved despite playing much of the game with just 10 men. They were reduced in numbers due to the idiotic actions of talismanic captain John Terry who kicked a Barcelona forward away from the action and was given a straight red card. This only appeared to galvanise Chelsea’s resolve and drove them to a level of performance that not many felt such an old team would be capable of against a power like Barca. Given the straight red, John Terry’s services won’t be available for today’s championship. In addition to Terry, Chelsea will be without defender Ivanovic and midfielders Meireles and Ramires. Of the four absentees I see the loss of Ramires as critical. Chelsea will miss the young Brazilians energy and ability to close the opposition down and regain possession for the Blues. Along with the suspension issues, Chelsea has injury concerns to defenders Cahill and Luiz. Coach Di Matteo will keep his selections as close to the vest as possible to not give any advantage to Munich. This will mean leaving his line-up to the last minute giving the injured defensive duo every chance to make the starting 11. However, Chelsea’s lack of continuity in the selection process actually gives Bayern a huge edge in my opinion.
Bayern overcame the might of Ronaldo and Real Madrid via the penalty kick lottery to get to the championship. In typical German fashion, Bayern employed a tremendous work rate and soccer efficiency to overcome a more technically gifted side. Over the years German teams, both club and national, have proved masterful in their tournament play. They tend to peak at just the right time and this year has proved no different. Bayern also has line-up headaches following suspensions to defensive players Alaba, Badstuber, and Gustavo. However, they look to be a more fluid attacking outfit with talented attacking players Gomez, Ribery, Robben, and Schweinsteiger sure to cause the restricted Chelsea defence big problems. The defensive options available to Bayern coach Jupp Heynckes also appear to be deeper than that of Chelsea.
By a strange quirk of fate, this game is to be played in Bayern Munich’s own stadium. This is not some strange form of European tradition that hands one team home advantage but rather this game is supposed to be played on a neutral field. Just like Superbowl locations are decided years in advance, so are Champions League Final venues so this is more an exception to the rule than the norm. This is the first time though that a team has competed for this great trophy in their own city. I have wrestled in my mind with the possible advantages and disadvantages of playing in your own backyard: You have no issues of travel, time away from home, and you are comfortable in your surroundings. Does the constant home media attention begin to drain the players and give them no escape from the pressure? The Chelsea players are in unfamiliar surroundings away from their family but will remain together as a group looking to escape from the limelight into their hotel. The ticket allocation remains normal for such a game. Both teams initially received the same amount of tickets but the geographical proximity for Munich fans should ensure they heavily outnumber the Chelsea supporters. This normally means any marginal officiating calls will go to the team with the more vociferous supporters. I suppose the answer to that question may only become apparent when Portugese referee Pedro Proenca blows his whistle to signal the end of the game.
Naturally I think it is fair to assume that a game of such magnitude will bring nervous tension that would materialise itself into a cautious approach. A cautious approach is normally associated with a low goals total yet such an assumption for this the biggest club game in the world would be incorrect. There have been at least two goals in the last eight finals and six of the last ten Champions League Finals have seen the over 2.5 ticket cash. With all the changes both teams are set to make defensively, I believe the over is the side you want to be with if betting into that market.
Very rarely do you find a such a strong short favourite in a Champions League Final as Bayern Munich is today. I cannot find a weakness though in the price as they seem to have everything going in their favour for this game. Home advantage, a better squad, and more favourable pre game luck in terms of injuries and suspensions should allow them to lift the cup late Saturday evening.
