Prominence at Pimlico
Contributed by horse racing expert John Valter (follow him on twitter @kyderbyjay)
I’ve finally stopped celebrating my brilliant Kentucky Derby handicapping and sat down to the business of tackling the 2012 Preakness, the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown. It’s a bit of a different race than the Derby and requires a different handicapping mindset. While recent Derbys have produced some winners who completely disappeared after wearing the garland of roses (Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver), the Preakness has produced a number of champions who either failed in the Derby (Afleet Alex, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky) or didn’t race in Kentucky at all (Bernardini, Rachel Alexandra). Even last year’s Preakness winner, Shackleford, looks to be the superior horse to the last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom.
In terms of envisioning how the race will be won, it’s actually unlikely to be run that much different than the Derby, just with a smaller field. There is a common perception that speed horses tend to fare much better over the Pimlico oval but it’s not necessarily accurate. Shackleford did win last year after battling with Flashpoint for the early lead, however more often than not the winner tends to come from off the pace.
Here’s my look at the field (just 11 horses, smallest since 2008), dividing those horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby from those that didn’t:
The New Shooters: Pretension is the only horse with a win over the track, a minor stakes race on Derby Day. However, he was a well-beaten 9th in his race prior in the Illinois Derby against a much better field and looks hopelessly overmatched here…Zetterholm, trained by Richard Dutrow, has won three straight, albeit all against New York state-bred horses and does not appear to be fast enough…Dale Romans opted to save Derby 3rd-place finisher Dullahan for the Belmont, but comes to Maryland with Cozzetti, who most recently was seen finishing 4th in the Arkansas nearly ten lengths behind Bodemeister. I see no sign that he’s ready to cut into that deficit here today…Teeth Of The Dog looks like he could be a pace challenger for Bodemeister, but that’s about it for the Michael Matz trainee…Of the new shooters, I am most intrigued by Tiger Walk. It’s not so much that I think he’s much of a threat for the win — (his lone wins are over suspect competition at Laurel) — as much as I think he’s a threat to hit the final pay table. He’s the only one of this group that has shown a consistent ability to pass horses down the stretch and that alone makes him a useful entry on the bottom part of your exotics. I don’t think that I’n going out on a limb when I say that the winner of the 2012 Preakness will be from among those that raced in the Kentucky Derby.
The Derby Boys: I described Optimizer as “overmatched” in my Derby preview, and I see no reason that anything is different two weeks later. His entry here reeks of D. Wayne Lukas wanting to be involved in the action, and nothing more…Daddy Nose Best was a horse that attracted a lot of attention in Louisville, and at 14-1, was actually a shorter price than I’ll Have Another (15-1): that won’t be happening in Baltimore. I wasn’t a big fan of his prospects in Kentucky, and I’m even less of a fan after his dull 10th place finish. In a race in which many had trip excuses, Daddy seemed to actually stay out of trouble but showed he’s a cut below the top 4…Went The Day Well was among those who I hyped two weeks ago and he ran a strong 4th at 30-1, beaten by only 2 ½ lengths passing both Bodemeister and Dullahan shortly after the wire. He made up 18 lengths in the final ¾ mile and appears to be among the most talented horse in his generation. With a good trip, he is certainly capable of winning here but I fear that much like the Derby, he will leave himself with too much work to do when it matters most…Creative Cause had to go 8-wide on the far turn in the Derby yet rallied for 3rd before being passed near the wire to eventually finish 5th. After repeated viewings of the Derby, I am convinced that no horse had a worse trip than he did and somehow he still finished just three lengths from the front. It was his first finish off-the-board, but it may be just as impressive a performance as any he has had. As the Santa Anita Derby demonstrated, not much separates he and I’ll Have Another. He’s a major win candidate…Bodemeister is the real wild card in this bunch. Yes, his Derby was impressive, but based on the respective hype and attention being paid he and the winner you’d think he was the one still alive for the Triple Crown. His strategy here is simple – gun for the lead, and don’t look back. It very nearly worked in the Derby and there sure seems to be a lot of people who think it will work here I’m just not one of them. I don’t think he is capable of pairing a similar effort two weeks later and I also don’t think he’s capable of setting a moderate pace. Even if he makes an easy lead, I still suspect that Mike Smith will push him along at a breakneck pace. If he wins here, he’s worth the hype but he’ll do it without my support…What can I say about I’ll Have Another that I didn’t say two weeks ago? The race unfolded exactly as I predicted, and the horse that benefitted was also the horse I predicted. This time around, I think that he will need to race closer to the lead but I see absolutely no reason that he’s not capable of doing so. He simply looks like the best of his generation, with a perfect running style for this race. No way will you get a price approaching the gift from the gods that was his 15-1 price in the Derby; 3-1 seems more likely. Still, jump on it because come Saturday night, there will be be a blanket of black-eyed susans on his back.
