Take it to the Limit
Every pointspread is not created equally. A bookmaker’s confidence level varies by sport since he has to be willing to take the biggest bets in markets believed to be most efficient for long term profitability. However, efficiency doesn’t imply the numbers are air tight but rather indicates there is enough money being wagered on a game to limit overall liability. No one believes (nor will any bookmaker tell you) that the same amount of time is spent setting nightly NBA props as goes into establishing weekly NFL lines because the market cap isn’t close to the same size. Sharp bettors know they won’t be able to bet enough on props to make it their primary source of revenue so they don’t invest their time in a market that can’t sustain them. Given the 100x increase in volume a sportsbook sees on Browns vs Seahawks compared to O/U Kevin Durant made FG’s, we’d be crazy not to allocate our focus primarily to the NFL game in this example. Like any successful business, the majority of time is dedicated towards the most profitable pursuits, allowing us to create tighter markets where comfort levels increase with larger bet size.
To understand the relative strength of a betting line from a bookmaker’s perspective, bettors need to look no further than the limits being offered to them on a particular event. Among the 4 major sports, pro football provides gamblers the greatest opportunity for large wagers because the market size for a single game is far superior to any other sport. As a result of more money being wagered on a sporting event (think Superbowl), it means each big bet that enters the pool creates a smaller ripple than a 10k bet would on a WNBA side when handle for the entire game might be 11k.
When it comes to the business of big bets, it doesn’t make fiscal sense for books to offer huge limits on events that allow the player to gain an overwhelming edge. Arena football is a prime example of a market that has a niche among professionals but quite honestly doesn’t warrant a ton of time being committed to it by bookmakers. There is limited public money wagered there to stabilize the pools so prices fluctuate wildly from the open based on sharp action alone. Even after limit bets flood in and adjustments are made, there’s a good chance the market still remains highly inefficient and volatile.
Sure, I know what everyone is thinking that it sounds like I’m making excuses for my fellow colleagues and I when it comes to being conservative on certain sports. The reality is sportsbooks are a business like any other and the goal is to make money on every market we open weekly, seasonally, or annually. When a sport attracts attention from both the recreational bettor and the professional , it gives us the coveted balance and increased handle we need to offer larger limits. For the sharp gambler, winning means finding one line to exploit and capitalizing whereas the bookmaker striving to be competitive needs to offer prices on over 100 events each and every day. Call us soft, scared, or a litany of other adjectives but know the 11/10 helps to build a bookmaker safeguard however it doesn’t deter the sharpest gamblers in the world from drawing us into a daily cat and mouse game composed of seeking inefficient markets and exploiting value.
