Reducing Risk by Parlaying for Payouts
Courtesy of Peej the Professor (follow him on twitter @Peej___)
Whether it’s totals or picking straight up winners, playing staggered parlays can allow you to eliminate heavy juice in any moneyline sport. For this time of year, a methodology like this can easily be applied to both the NHL and MLB to avoid those somewhat dangerous chalky favorites. Sunday provided a great example to illustrate such an opportunity even if the parlay didn’t actually hit. Since we’re in the business of information exchange and building a thought process, here’s how the day would have unfolded:
3:20 pm Los Angeles Kings/ St Louis Blues 5 under -165
7:35 pm New Jersey Devils / Philadelphia Flyers 5.5 under -150
If we like to play both games under 5 and our unit is $1000, we would be risking $3150 to win $2000.
If you’re a little more risk averse you could decide to play a two game parlay risking $1000 to win $1676.77.
Now because the Kings/Blues game would be completed well before the Devils/Flyers dropped the puck, we had several options. If the first game went over 5, we could then play the 2nd game straight up risking $1500 to win $1000. In the end, we are risking $2500 instead of $3150 and we could break even on our dime units whereas if we split playing each game straight, the juice would make us nearly a half unit loser for the day.
Here’s where things get interesting. If the first game comes in under the total, we have a decision to make before puck drops on the nightcap. We can of course leave the 2 team parlay and just risk the $1000 to win $1676.77. However, for turning long term profit there will be plenty of gamblers making like Steve Miller “Take the Money and Run.” I personally would recommend playing the 2nd game over to guarantee ourselves a profit for the day because if we play the over at +130 (risking $1000 to win $1300), we could clear a 300 puck profit for the day. Ideally we’d be rooting against our straight hedge bet winning because we could net out 676.77 if the parlay hits.
I will add the caveat that this isn’t a fail proof method to winning consistently but it does provide an approach for limiting juice if you happen to take the collar and go 0-2. The real key is making sure the start times are staggered enough to keep your options open and find a sure fire way to end up in the black.
