Playing the Waiting Game
Can Newcastle spring another major upset?
By James Kempton
The final whistle sounded at Etihad last Monday and the stadium, sans 2,500 Manchester United fans, erupted to a chorus of cheers. Manchester City’s 1-0 win over their city neighbours and chief rivals for the EPL title ensures they are in control of their own destiny headed into the final two games. I could not help but think though as the players were lapping up the praise and adulation that it may be a bit premature since the race to EPL glory often has late twists and turns.
In midweek, the eyes of Manchester centred on West London as Newcastle travelled to Chelsea. Never has a fifth plays sixth game been watched with such intensity as by the fans of the two Manchester clubs. If, as expected, Chelsea overcame Newcastle then the chance of Champions League qualification would be vanquished. That would have made Manchester City’s trip to the North East this Sunday much easier. However, the +600 dog Geordies did not read the script and go quietly into the night instead grabbing an amazing 2-0 win with the global fan base for Manchester United squarely behind them. Both goals in that win were scored by the hugely talented Papiss Cisse and his second goal is a contender for the best goal in EPL history. Partnering along side Cisse is Demba Ba and despite him going cold on the goalscoring front of late they will be a formidable partnership for City to contain.
Man City is 9-5-4 on the road so can you really trust them as heavy favorites given the fact they only win half of their road games? Couple that with Newcastle’s 11-2-5 record and you create an awfully compelling match-up. However, all of you thinking of wagering on Newcastle this Sunday I have some stats that may serve to temper your enthusiasm. Newcastle has not won any of the last ten meetings between the two sides and City has won three of the last four meetings played at Newcastle’s stadium. Having established that both teams want and need to win this game, I believe it is safe to say this game may not offer bettors much value. Sometimes the best wagering decision you can make is not to make a wager at all.
So, have we wasted 500 words and about 5 minutes of your life reading this article? Probably not as I think I have an angle that we can look to exploit depending on the result of that first game. Manchester United does have one advantage going into this Super Sunday despite their second place standing in the table. Their game comes after City so will know the early results which should have a major impact on how the Reds approach their contest. Man U hosts a Swansea side receiving plaudits from all EPL experts for their stylish play and their approach to the game. However, the Swans have been poor on the road and Old Trafford won’t offer much reprieve. Their 4-10-4 record away from Wales does not give you much hope as a Swans backer in a game of this magnitude. In nine road games against teams in the top half of the table Swansea has only mustered seven goals while the United side is 14-2-2 on their own turf, scoring 50 goals in the process.
If City falters in the first game and does not win then there will be an electric atmosphere at Old Trafford by the time kick off arrives. Last week Swansea allowed a three goal lead to be pegged back at home to Wolves and that would concern me greatly if I was relying on Swansea to keep it a tight game. Alex Ferguson will more than likely open his team up and look to get at Swansea from the start of the game. I sense a loss or draw for City will bring the best out of a United side still hurting from Monday nights loss themselves. A more attacking United side sent out by the management team will create a lot of chances against a Swansea team who give the opposition a lot of time on the ball.
The key to a bet this Sunday is patience, if the result goes United’s way in the early game then take them to cover the -2 handicap and seize control of the EPL title race once again.
