Run for the Roses 2012
Contributed by @kyderbyjay Follow him on twitter for great race day insight and analysis
The 2012 Kentucky Derby is upon us, and it figures to be as wide open a renewal as ever. As such, the wagering opportunities are fantastic, and, with wise selections, the chance for a nice payday is good. What follows is my biased and only slightly educated look at the field, but first, a word about what I look for in a Derby contender. The important thing is to envision how the race will be run. The Derby is unique in that the field is extremely large; a twenty-horse field is unheard of in any other North American race. As such, the first 30 yards are a very important part of the race. The old adage is that the race can’t be won then, but it sure as hell can be lost.
Because of all the traffic, positioning in the early part of the race is important, with the speed horses cruising to the front, the stalkers looking to get a good position and save some ground, and the deep closers content to set in the back of the pack, waiting for one long run at the end of the race. One key thing to keep in mind is that horses rarely win the Derby on the front end; too many speed horses usually leads to a tiring speed duel. Horses that look great on paper that may have gotten away with wire-to-wire jobs in the smaller fields aren’t going to be so fortunate in the Derby. As for deep closers, they don’t often win either, as the task of passing 17 or 18 horses is a lot tougher than passing 5 or 6. That’s why I usually lean towards stalkers when making a Derby selection. So, examine the running styles of the horses closely, envision the positioning of the horses after the first 1/4 mile…and bet accordingly. Understand one thing as you cap the Derby, expect the unexpected as the pay table below since 2000 indicates its a race where anything can and will happen.
| Year | $2 Win | $2 Exacta | $2 Trifecta | $2 Super |
| 2011 | $43.80 | $329.80 | $3,952.40 | $48,126.00 |
| 2010 | $18.00 | $152.40 | $2,337.40 | $202,569.20 |
| 2009 | $103.20 | $2,704.80 | $41,500.60 | $557,006.40 |
| 2008 | $6.80 | $141.60 | $3,445.60 | $58,737.80 |
| 2007 | $11.80 | $101.80 | $444.00 | $29,046.40 |
| 2006 | $14.20 | $587.00 | $11,418.40 | $84,860.40 |
| 2005 | $102.60 | $9,814.80 | $133,134.80 | $864,253.50 |
| 2004 | $10.20 | $65.20 | $987.60 | $41,380.20 |
| 2003 | $27.60 | $97.00 | $664.80 | $5,591.60 |
| 2002 | $43.00 | $1,300.80 | $18,373.20 | $183,529.00 |
| 2001 | $23.00 | $1,229.00 | $12,238.40 | $125,973.80 |
| 2000 | $6.60 | $66.00 | $435.00 | $3,270.80 |
| Median | $20.50 | $241.10 | $3,699.00 | $71,799.10 |
Pay table courtesy of anddownthestretchtheycome
Now, on to this year’s field:
The Pretenders
Daddy Long Legs won in Dubai in his only start as a three-year-old, which hasn’t proven to be a path to Derby success. Add to that the dreaded inside post position, and I think this colt’s chances can be dismissed completely…Optimizer had only hit the board once in four starts this year; it’s nice to see Wayne Lukas back in the Derby, but this one looks well overmatched…Trinniberg has never raced beyond 7 furlongs, and has no business being entered here. He may be on the lead for the first half-mile, but he is my pick to finish last…Prospective beat a weak Tampa Bay Derby field, but was not a factor in the Blue Grass Stakes. Showed no affinity for the Churchill track with a 13th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. I’ll pass…Sabercat impressed me last year as a two-year-old, but hasn’t taken much of a step forward this year. I think this horse may make some noise down the line, but not in the Derby…Liaison is another who looked much better as a two-year-old. Was expected to be a big factor in the Santa Anita Derby, but finished a non-menacing 6th. Can’t endorse based on current form…Hansen is the most talented group in this bunch, and owns a huge win over the track in last November’s Breeders’ Cup but he wants to run on the lead, and seems likely to get cooked in a speed dual. Additionally, Hansen figures to be bet heavily and offer less value than any other horse in the field. I am taking a major stand against his prospects for victory.
Not Without Merit
Take Charge Indy was the surprise winner of the Florida Derby, and retains the services of Churchill stalwart Calvin Borel. This is a talented and improving colt, but is another that may be a victim of a pace duel…That same pace duel is what I expect to fell morning line-favorite Bodemeister. The Bob Baffert-trained colt has looked like a monster so far, but also never really been challenged on the lead. A repeat of the Arkansas Derby trip is highly unlikely, and less he is just a total freak, I don’t see the race set up very well for his style…Rousing Sermon is always running late, and will likely pass a lot of tiring horses in the stretch, but this is a horse that I would consider using in trifectas and superfectas much moreso than as a win wager…Daddy Nose Best is two for two as a three-year-old, most recently capturing the Sunland Derby in New Mexico. He’s been attracting a lot of attention from wise-guy types, and, while I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he won, I just don’t think he’s faced much competition yet…Done Talking’s Illinois Derby victory has been criticized as slow, and not wrongly so. Still, I think this guy is a little bit better than he’s getting credit for, and he is another that will be doing his best running late…Dullahan was a sharp winner of the Blue Grass Stakes over Keeneland’s synthetic surface, but has yet to score a win over a dirt surface. That didn’t stop last year’s Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, but still, I prefer the chances of a few others.
Strong Contenders
Union Rags is a likely candidate to go off as post-time favorite, and I think he’s sitting on a very big race. He disappointed at short odds in the Florida Derby, but still ran a strong race against a disadvantageous pace scenario. Big things are expected…Went The Day Well hails from the same connections as Animal Kingdom, and chose the same path to prep for the Derby in the Spiral Stakes. It was an impressive stalking victory, the kind of race that makes me think he’s ready to step into the pressure cooker of the Kentucky Derby and fare extremely well…Among those horses labeled closers, I prefer El Padrino best of all. Owns two nice wins this year, and finished right behind Union Rags in the Florida Derby where he also fought the track bias this day. If he gets a clean trip in Louisville, he could be wearing the roses…Creative Cause has done little wrong in his eight-race career, and had he won the photo in the Santa Anita Derby, he might be attracting more attention. That said, I still expect him to attract lots of attention at the windows, and rightfully so. This Mike Harrington-trained colt is one of the most talented in the field, and will surprise no one with a win…It’s hard to separate Gemologist & Alpha, the one-two finishers in the Wood Memorial. Gemologist gamely fought off the latter to retain his undefeated record, while Alpha looked like a horse that might relish the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby. Both are big threats on Saturday.
And The Winner Is…
I’ll Have Another has run two consecutive monster efforts in California, and, based on my criteria, looks every bit the part of a Derby champion. Visually speaking, I was more impressed with his win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, than I was with any other Derby prep this year. He followed that up with a gutsy photo win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby. He looks primed for a major effort under the Twin Spires. Some say trainer Doug O’Neill can’t succeed outside California, some say the 19 post will be a major hindrance, and some say jockey Mario Gutierrez is too inexperienced for a race of this magnitude. Well, I’m ignoring what “some say”, and telling you what I say — and that is that I expect I’ll Have Another to wear the garland of roses on Saturday night.
