What Weaver’s no-no means to Halos backers
Contribution courtesy of @SportsCheetah
Last night Jared Weaver took the mound for the 9-15 Los Angeles Angels against the Minnesota Twins. For those that had their heads buried in the sand (or glued to playoff NBA or NHL action), the end result was a no-hitter. Personally, I believe this no-no came at just the right time for a team rapidly falling out of contention in the AL West only 24 games into the young season.
The Angles opened up their check books this off-season and inked starting pitcher C.J. Wilson to a 5-year, $77.5 million contract. As if that weren’t enough, they also signed one of the greatest hitters of all-time to the second biggest contract in sports history, snatching Albert Pujols up for a bargain basement price of $254 million over 10 years. Unfortunately for the Halos, this “throw money at the biggest free-agents” strategy has yet to pay dividends. In fact, Pujols is having the worst start to any season in his 12-year career and the stats say its not even close. One guy can’t really miss being that close to Anheuser Busch and the Arch that much can he?
A little less than 20% into the season, in a month where historically he has been at his most efficient, here are Pujols’ YTD averages compared to his career: .208/.252/.287 BA/OBP/SLG in 2012, compared to .327/.418/.612 hitter. Not only is Pujols struggling to get hits, but he has hit 0 HR’s through 101 plate appearances and has only walked 6 times while striking out 14. Before this season, Pujols walked almost 1,000 times compared to just 700 strikeouts while hitting a HR every 14.17 at-bats. The $254 million dollar man isn’t the only one struggling in the OC however and the Angels recently let Bobby Abreu go thanks to his incredibly slow start, demoted their young stud and expected closer Jordan Walden to a set-up role (8.31 ERA) , and have compiled a robust .238 average as a team. Low and behold that “other” LA team now finds themselves sitting in the division cellar behind the likes of Oakland and Seattle.
Instead of listing everything that’s gone wrong for the club this year, let’s shift back to last night’s unblemished performance from Jered Weaver. Despite playing arguably the worst team in Major League Baseball, Weaver accomplished what only 9 other Angels’ pitchers had done before him in club history. With the crowd on their feet in the 9th and everyone in America cheering him on (except the 8 Twins fans still watching the game), I saw something else unfold that casual baseball bettors probably missed: each Angel player on the field showed a fire in their eyes. Sure the prospect of being part of a no-hitter and Angel history is a great motivator in itself, but did we see a team that might finally be able to rally after a horrendous start?
Whether morale or team chemistry reaches a season high remains to be seen but the confidence that a performance like Weaver’s instills in a ball club could make the Halos a team that bears watching for bettors. I won’t claim to have numbers to back this up or advanced stats that show an imminent regression to the mean leading to more wins for this Angels team, it’s more a gut feel. What I do have is the knowledge of the unique aspects of sport psychology that are critical to successful performances across all sports, especially in a game like baseball where not only the physical toll of a 162-game schedule effects even seasoned veterans, but the mental grind as well.
I study sport psychology and use my experiences in the field combined with my knowledge of sports to profit from betting on games. My proposal for May is to pay extra close attention to each Angels game this month and realize the inflation we saw throughout April might finally be eliminated from the market. I expect them to take this momentum and turn it into a red-hot month for themselves as well as supporters at the betting window. I will track each play throughout the month and reevaluate my position at the end of May like every gambler should when looking to take his investments seriously. My expectation is that yes, the Angels are going to start winning more games, but also that Vegas will be slow to adjust their lines over the next few weeks. I see immediate value on the Halos thanks to their slow start driven primarily by the psychological boost from last night’s effort. Like in any gamble, we could reconvene June 1 and not be turning a profit. However trusting your instincts is a big part of betting America’s pastime and I intend to ride mine all month long.
