Betting Guide to the Western Conference
by NBA insider Rob Perez (follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob)
Looking for more NBA analysis from Rob? Click here to visit his blog
San Antonio Spurs
We all know how good San Antonio is and has been for the past decade. My question: Does Vegas know? Judging by where they’re priced the Spure offer more value to win the Western Conference than the public darling Oklahoma City Thunder currently do. Considering their odds to take home the title, there’s a ton of value on a side that will have homecourt throughout the Western conference playoffs.
In my opinion betting on the Spurs to win a single series makes ZERO sense. If you are confident in the Spurs this postseason, your best bet is to take them to win the NBA Title. I do NOT think they will win the championship, but at current market price, you can optimize the value on them to just win the West. The opponent the Spurs will potentially face in the NBA Finals will NOT be heavy favorites even if it’s now a safe assumption that Miami will represent the East in the finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The “Stay Away” bet of the 2012 NBA Playoffs for me are the Oklahoma City Thunder. Don’t get me wrong, the Thunder are a solid basketball team, but I personally have them ranked as the 3rd, maybe even 4th best team in their own conference — let alone in the NBA with MIA in the East. Here’s my problem with betting OKC: they are Square’s weapon of choice. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka all should have their own SportsCenter segment. They are incredibly flashy, young, and high-powered. Think of the Thunder as the NBA’s version of the Green Bay Packers: no high- matter who they play, or where they play them, they are most likely going to be favored, even if they shouldn’t be.
From a basketball stand point, this team has a gaping hole that prevents them from winning big games, and that void is at the Point Guard Position. Russell Westbrook, as we all know, is one, if not THE, most talented Point Guard in the league. However, something just doesn’t click with him when a big game is on the line, and it costs OKC dearly, let alone trying to cover the chalk they lay ATS every game.
I don’t see value in anything involving OKC this postseason. They are favored heavily vs. DAL Round 1, and I don’t see why they won’t be ‘heavily favored’ until they are eliminated. Books will be unable to adjust to OKC’s true value, because they will expose themselves to an avalanche of public steam if they do. What this means is that you are getting bad value on your $ the second you place the bet. From a futures standpoint, the same words should resonate as this team hasn’t offered value since the beginning of the year.
Los Angeles Lakers
Feels weird that the Lakers aren’t the odds-on-favorite to win the NBA Championship, let alone the chalk in the Western Conference. Do I dare say that there might actually be VALUE in betting the Los Angeles Lakers this postseason? The Lakers aren’t favorites for a reason. Despite having arguably one of the best 10 players of all time, this team’s only true “X factor” is: Who’s going to lose ‘it’ first, Andrew Bynum or Metta World Peace? Kobe is great; don’t get me wrong … but, can this old, yet, immature team WIN a 7 game series vs OKC AND the likes of MEM/SAS? Eh.
If we see an Andrew Bynum effort like we did in Game 1 this team becomes much more formidable than any experts ever thought possible. I’m not a believer in LA’s prospects for a conference finals (yet) as long as NBA games require teams to defend and score 96 possessions on average. For right now I would take a similar approach to the Lakers as I see fit for the Spurs however Instead of looking for NBA title futures, purchasing a stake in the Western Conference instead. This approach will afford you plenty of chances to hedge assuming you believe they get through the Nuggets in round 1.
Memphis Grizzlies
There’s always that one team that every fan secretly thinks: “Gosh, I hope they lose right away. I want no part of them.” Ladies and gentlemen, the Memphis Grizzlies are that team. A combination of:
– 4 All-Stars
– the best on ball-defending guard in the league
– a legitimate “6th man of the year” candidate
– premier inside-out interior scoring
These factors have made Memphis the best team in the Western Conference.
That’s not a typo: the best team in the Western Conference: However, we’ll definitely get to learn a lot more about the Grizzlies and their resiliency given the historic collapse last night but I’m not running to write off the Grizz like the rest of the media. Despite the fact that I have MEM coming out of the West this year, I don’t think they can topple Miami. Against common belief, remember: a NBA team is still permitted to win the championship if not in one of the United States’ top 10 markets. Memphis can match up with any team in the NBA when it comes to speed, size, or talent. They will die for their coach, and are almost 9 deep. Don’t look past them just because they don’t play at 3:30 PM EST on Sundays.
Los Angeles Clippers
Everyone loves Lob City. Being a huge basketball traditionalist/fan of defense, I’ll even admit that half court lobs from CP3 to Blake Griffin get me really excited and make me spill drinks. Here’s the problem: Good teams in the West know how to defend the alley oops. What this does is force the Clippers to win games in the half court … you know, how every single playoff game this decade has been determined. There are a lot of things that I require to be considered a “legitimate basketball team”, but the most important is a Point Guard that is playoff-ready. Needless to say, the
Clippers are strapped with the best PG in the NBA and is a natural-born killer in Chris Paul as we saw last night vs the Grizzlies
Problem for the Clippers is they’re matched up with a team that dominates them at almost every position and we saw the Grizzlies do so last night for the better part of 40 minutes. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are responsible for some of the greatest YouTube highlights of all-time … but, they can’t create their own shot to save their lives. In addition, they shoot FTs like they are 7 games deep in a beer pong tournament. This results in teams protecting the rim at all costs against LA and forcing them to the foul line to earn their points . Don’t get me wrong, the Clips are a very talented team but not quite ready for Playoff basketball.
Denver Nuggets
You’ve got to tip your hat to the Denver Nuggets. After the Carmelo Anthony trade last spring, they were left for dead. Yes, they received future Hall of Famer Timothy Mozgov, (cough), but you can’t replace a Carmelo Anthony, perennial superstar with spare parts. They’ve managed to pivot their business model into a “liberal” offense, in which everyone gets equal touches and so far it’s working. They’ve made the playoffs for lord knows how many years in a row, and they run a “NBA Jam” fast break led by arguably the fastest player in the league, Ty Lawson.
My problem with Denver is that they just don’t have the talent to advance in this year’s playoffs. They are matched up with the Los Angeles Lakers … and in the playoffs, the style of basketball switches to half court, defensive battles … no matter who is playing. This is not to Denver’s liking, which is why they bow out of the playoffs in the first round almost every year.
The Nuggets just don’t have the personnel to knock out LAL. If the first round was a best of five series like it used to be, I would actually have considered backing Denver. The Lakers have too much size despite their inability to defend young/fast teams … and the playoff-style basketball really puts a damper on the Nuggets’ up-tempo offense annually. It’s not the worst bet in the world but I’d refrain from investing any of your hard-earned money in Denver futures this postseason despite an avalanche of money that came in on them to win their series vs the Lakers.
Dallas Mavericks
It’s tough for me to write off the defending champs so early, but the Mavericks almost went Florida Marlins on us this offseason: firesale as soon as you win a championship. Thankfully, for Dallas fans, Mark Cuban is a business genius and knows how to field a somewhat respectable team without his fans knowing he purposely cleared cap space with expiring contracts, getting aging vets (Vince Carter) to sign on for the veteran’s minimum.
This Dallas team is a shell of what it was 365 days ago. Without Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, Caron Butler, or DeShawn Stevenson, this team lost what made it so great: defensive toughness, heart, and role players that were elite at their craft to surround Dirk. This year, it seems like they’re nothing more than a group of mercenaries that go through the motions.
Dirk Nowitzki will single-handedly win one game for Dallas this series and Russell Westbrook will win the other for Dallas … but that’s it Mavs fans. Unless Dirk can find a way to TOP last year’s heroic playoff performance, the Mavs just don’t have the firepower to overcome powerhouse OKC. Thanks for the memories last year Dirk and we’ll see you again next year with a much better supporting cast.
Utah Jazz
You know, if you held a gun to my head and said: “Pick an 8 vs. 1 upset in any sport or die” … this would not be my selection. The Jazz defeated the Spurs twice this season … one of only three teams to make that claim. Also, both of their wins weren’t against the Greg Popovich “can we just forfeit and go home” squad he fields from time-to-time. The Jazz have legitimate interior scoring in Al Jefferson, an arsenal of young talent: Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter, and DeMarre Carroll, an elite rebounder/scrapper in Paul Millsap, and a respectable PG in Devin Harris.
Unfortunately, the playoffs are not decided by simulating a NBA Live game.
Though you could argue the Jazz have the “talent” to hang with San Antonio, they lack the playoff experience, grit, and a bonafide closer. You also can’t send a revolving door of: Paul Millsap, Enes Kanter, and Derrick Favors to guard arguably the best PF of all-time in an opening round playoff series. That’s written somewhere in the NBA rulebook.
The Jazz may get game 3 since they love playing at home, and their defense thrives off the energy inside their own building .. Supported by their 23-8 home record. But, in the NBA, it requires 4 games to win a playoff series …. Not 1. No value in this long shot, but, I’ll certainly be watching to see how this young unit progresses for future investments.
