Creating a Win Total
This time of year we’re all itching to get our football fix in any capacity. Whether its searching for an angle on draft props, anticipating situational spots based on the NFL schedule release, or mulling copious future book options every gambler is getting involved. With the recent release of a few high profile college football win totals at an offshore book, it only made sense for me to try and break down my thought process when it comes to setting an opening number. Every bookmaker handle’s this process differently but for my purposes I try to rate each game 0 to 10 with a 10 meaning a virtual lock and 0 implying it will take a Stanford over USC type upset to grab the win. At the end of the process, I’ll add up my total and attach appropriate juice based on intangibles, public perception, and overall gut feel.
Let’s use the upcoming schedule for USC to illustrate my process since the Men of Troy have already been crowned by some as de facto national champions before the season even starts. For ease of reading, my probability of winning each game is bolded to the right of every opponent.
2012 USC FOOTBALL SCHEDULE
Sept. 1 — Hawaii (10)
Sept. 8 — vs. Syracuse (@ E. Rutherford, N.J.) (9)
Sept. 15 — at Stanford (8)
Sept. 22 — California (10)
Oct. 4 (Th.) — at Utah (8)
Oct. 13 — at Washington (7)
Oct. 20 — Colorado (10)
Oct. 27 — at Arizona (9)
Nov. 3 — Oregon (5)
Nov. 10 — Arizona State (10)
Nov. 17 — at UCLA (9)
Nov. 24 — Notre Dame (8)
The total in bold adds up to an overall rating of 103, or in simper terms 10.3 wins for this season. However, coming up with an opening number isn’t cut and dry so I’d now use this framework as my baseline before a price goes to market.
Logically the next question for me is do I decide to hang a 10 with the over juiced or elect to use a 10.5 with juice to the under? In this case with a national title contender my thought process is bettors need to be forced into a decision and I know there will be a ton of public money entering the market. As a result I ask myself is USC more likely to go 11-1, 10-2, or 9-3? In my opinion, I believe they’re much more likely to go 10-2 or 11-1 than 9-3 so I’m immediately inclined to start with 10.5 because there are only 2 outcomes in my mind for this season. At this juncture, it then becomes a question of opinion and steering action with my two best options looking like the following:
10 over -150
or
10.5 Under -160
By using juice, it serves as a deterrent for the professionals unless they are supremely confident this team can achieve a certain result. If the wiseguys flock in to take the total at + juice then I’d know an adjustment is needed immediately. Also, by maintaining counter limits we can move the line with each bet and not allow too many people to get the best of a virgin number before the market stabilizes.
I know a lot of folks have seen a current number with heavy juice attached to USC right now and basically what a price with juice over -200 says is stay away. If anything, the line starts baiting under bettors to take a lofty price tag on a purely speculative basis since more has to go right for a team to eclipse their win total rather than underachieve and fall short of expectations.
You won’t hear it from coming from every bookmaker so I’ll emphasize the fact that every line tells a story and with each price we hang, our goal is to anticipate bets. If I hang a future, prop, or spread and am surprised by the initial betting pattern than I haven’t done my job correctly and nowhere is this more important than the win totals market.
