Proper Valuations
Baseball is a sport where you want to bet the the name on the back of the jersey while not paying a premium for the one on the front.
Everyone who successfully bets baseball knows the long term key to profitability is identifying value wherever it presents itself. Whether its a total, side, or run line, there are always spots for the sharp gambler to gain an edge over those of us on the bookmaking side. The truth is we as bookmakers have to line every game each night while the bettor only needs to find one game where he or she believes they can find variance between true odds and the market. Astute players have lists of pitchers and umpires they’ll look to bet on (or against) with their primary real goal finding value in a commodity long before the book does.
Matchups are a key component in sports, there’s no disputing that aspect. However, there are games where the match-up advantage is effectively priced into the line eliminating the perceived edge and yet there are also spots where it isn’t accounted for accurately. When it comes to past performance of certain teams, it’s not always indicative of the future. The Dodgers improbable start serves as a poster child for illustrating this concept because a further examination of their hot start reveals they were aided by 2 series’ against the Padres and one against the offensively challenged Pirates. As a result, gamblers looked to capitalize when LA headed to Milwaukee and have reaped benefits of fading LA each of the last 2 nights.
When you break down pitching match-ups, dig into what the past history is telling you. Where was the game played, when was the game played, was it during a breakout season etc? I can’t emphasize the fact starting pitching is only one facet of betting baseball since bullpens and offenses tend to play in the outcome of a game last time I checked. Trying to locate slumping offenses priced like they’re mashing can yield solid fade opportunities especially when their ace is on the hill. There’s no arm in baseball right now that this illustrates this approach better than Dan Haren whose 0-3 start to the season has cost his supporters nearly 5 units (avg price this year -170 per start). Who is right next to Haren at the bottom of the money standings you ask? None other than Cliff Lee who dealt 10 innings of shutout baseball last night but has been plagued by the slumping Phillies offense. Pitchers priced as an ace with a bad offense behind them are unbettable because you’re paying for a name over performance
Now, in no way, shape, or form do I believe these elite arms will end up at the bottom of the money standings come season’s end yet they should be avoided for the time being. Rather than address each arm currently in a starting rotation, I’ve included early season money standings by team courtesy of covers.com
| Major League Baseball Standings | ||||||||
| Team | W | L | Money Won | Team | W | L | Money Lost | |
| Washington | 10 | 3 | $680 | LA Angels | 4 | 8 | ($774) | |
| Texas | 10 | 2 | $632 | San Diego | 3 | 10 | ($719) | |
| LA Dodgers | 9 | 3 | $618 | Kansas City | 3 | 9 | ($534) | |
| St. Louis | 9 | 3 | $611 | Chi. Cubs | 3 | 9 | ($519) | |
| Detroit | 9 | 3 | $533 | Cincinnati | 4 | 8 | ($457) | |
| NY Mets | 7 | 5 | $376 | Philadelphia | 5 | 7 | ($455) | |
| Baltimore | 7 | 5 | $360 | Boston | 4 | 8 | ($450) | |
| Seattle | 7 | 6 | $189 | Houston | 4 | 8 | ($261) | |
| Chi. White Sox | 6 | 5 | $131 | NY Yankees | 6 | 6 | ($259) | |
| Arizona | 7 | 5 | $97 | Minnesota | 4 | 8 | ($158) | |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 6 | $69 | Colorado | 6 | 6 | ($144) | |
| Atlanta | 7 | 5 | $30 | Milwaukee | 6 | 6 | ($60) | |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 7 | $16 | Miami | 6 | 6 | ($55) | |
| Cleveland | 5 | 5 | $7 | San Francisco | 6 | 6 | ($44) | |
| Oakland | 6 | 7 | $0 | Toronto | 6 | 5 | ($41) | |
Early season: OVERVALUED
Los Angeles Angels: Has there been a bigger flop to the early season than “that other team” in southern California? The El Hombre marketing campaign isn’t quite paying dividends considering the Angels are being priced like World Series contenders despite playing like the bad news bears. Their inconsistent starting pitching, lackluster middle relief, and scuffling offense has made them a bad bet early, especially in their own building. Until this team turns it around, bettor beware.
Philadelphia Phillies: Despite a pitching staff laden with household names, how many casual fans can name more than 3 regulars in the revolving door known as the Phillies line-up? Arms haven’t been the problem (allowing 2.83 runs per game) instead they’ve been plagued by inconsistent hitting and a dearth of run support. Similar to the plight of their west coast brethren, Philly’s elite arms need to be respected by oddsmakers so be prepared to lay a heavy price backing Cliff, Doc, and Cole. However, unless the offense begins to avg more than 2.9 runs per game, I’d be awfully careful laying heavy juice.
Soon to be overvalued: Los Angeles Dodgers and St Louis Cardinals
Early season: UNDERVALUED
New York Mets: Break up the miracle Mets! Well not really although their hot start has led to a profitable run for their supporters. Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Mike Pelphrey have provided relative stability to the rotation through 12 games and you can always count on these guys carrying affordable prices. David Wright is off to a red hot start among an anonymous Mets lineup that appears more confident at the dish since the fences were moved in at Citifield. Do I believe this is sustainable? Naah but in the meantime while they fly under the radar, the Metros are still undervalued.
Baltimore Orioles: While everyone else in the AL East looks like a mess through the early going, Baltimore has “surged” to the top of the standings. Sure, this won’t last for Manager Showalter but the young up-starts in baseball’s toughest division are turning a profit in the meantime. I’m not ready to sign off on Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta as an elite rotation that will carry this team through the summer but why not capitalize now? The Orioles have a plethora of young offensive talent; I’m just not sure it’s enough to keep them relevant on the earnings side throughout the rigors of their AL schedule.
Soon to be undervalued: Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds
