Round 1 Playoff Trends
The most grueling 2 months in all of sport starts tonight. Who will bring home hockey’s holy grail?
Just because trends develop over time doesn’t mean they’re indicative of what the future may hold so handicap accordingly. However, below are 2 years of aggregated data from the 2010 and 2011 first rounds. Some of the results are coincidence, some are anomalies, and some paint a picture of what we can expect in this year’s round of 16. Don’t predicate any of your betting decisions on a single trend over a 2 year sample size of 98 games but keep in mind history can repeat itself and some of these numbers are hard to overlook.
Series Betting
The last 2 years, teams that win Game 1 in their first round playoff series are 7-9 so sometimes waiting to bet a series price can offer better value
Western Conference teams who lost Game 1 were 4-0 for the series in 2011 while they were 0-4 in 2010. The East hasn’t quite been the same wild ride as last year the loser of Game 1 went 1-3 compared to 2-2 in 2010.
Road Warriors
When searching for live dogs, take a look at teams playing on the highway to offer solid value. The normal home/road adjustment is between .50 to .60 cents despite road teams compiling a winning record over the last 2 years.
2010: Road teams were 27-22 (13-11 in the Eastern Conference and 14-11 in the Western Conference)
2011: Road teams were 24-25 (12-14 in the Eastern Conference and 12-11 in the Western Conference)
One Goal Decisions
Those looking to take the “juicy” puckline odds on favorites need to keep in mind that 1 goal outcomes abound so there’s a reason teams laying 1.5 are often +200 and dogs carry tags of -200 or more.
2010: 22 of 49 (45%) 1st round games were decided by exactly 1 goal (14 in the Eastern Conference and 8 in the Western Conference)
2011: 25 of 49 (51%) 1st round games were decided by exactly 1 goal ( 15 in the Eastern Conference and 10 in the Western Conference)
Have a little bonus hockey
It might feel like OT happens frequently in the postseason but how often do we actually see it in the 1st round? Keep these percentages in mind if you’re looking to bet yes at +300 or less on “will a game go into OT?”
2010: 10 of 49 (20%) 1st round games required overtime to decide the winner
2011: 12 of 49 (24%) 1st round games required overtime to decide the winner
Calling all totals players
With the average total for Game 1 of this year’s first round posted at 5 (with juice), here are the breakdowns of offensive output by year and by conference. Each of the last 2 years, scoring in the Western conference has outpaced that in the east. About the normally accepted belief that playoff games are low scoring? Perception might need an adjustment before the puck drops tonight.
2010: Average goals scored per game 5.90 (5.83 in the Eastern Conference and 5.96 in the Western Conference)
2011: Average goals scored per game 5.69 (5.04 in the Eastern Conference and 6.43 in the Western Conference)
| Goals Scored Per Game | ||||
| Total | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Output | East | West | East | West |
| <5 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| =5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| >5 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
