Where fantasy baseball meets betting profit

Posted by Todd on Apr 2, 2012 in MLB

We hear about the growth of fantasy sports all the time as fans look for ways to increase involvement during each sport season.  Rarely is their a positive correlation between life as a fantasy owner and winning percentage as a gambler except for the summer months.  Finding undervalued (and overvalued) starting pitchers in baseball is synonymous with turning a profit because staying one step ahead of the linesmaker creates positive expectations.  Every year there are a handful of pitchers who burst onto the scene and leave a windfall of cash in their wake for loyal backers.  Unlike other sports, hitting 52.5% isn’t required to be successful when you isolate an arm that goes 10-10 at an average price of +135 since he yields a greater return than an elite arm who rattles off an 18-9 campaign with an average closing price of -200.  Is isolating a pitching mismatch the only thing you need to be a successful baseball bettor? Of course not but if you can enter a seemingly 50/50 proposition with a dog of +150 continually ignored by the bookmaker you’re off to a great start before every first pitch. It goes without saying the arms you’d look to bet on will be value buys for fantasy owners as well while the starters on the overvalued list are pitchers people will overdraft this season and headaches better left to your competition.

A quick glance at the list of most profitable arms in 2011 reveals some obvious names like Cy Young award winners Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander but how many people out there knew Jason Marquis and Aaron Harang netted the 9th and 10th greatest profit among pitchers starting at least 20 games?

Most Profitable Arms
	Name	Team	Team W-L	$
1	Ian Kennedy	ARI	25-8	$1,784
2	Zack Greinke	MIL	21-7	$1,274
3	Justin Verlander	DET	25-9	$1,151
4	Clayton Kershaw	LA	23-10	$1,141
5	Rick Porcello	DET	21-10	$1,024
6	Vance Worley	PHI	16-5	$1,013
7	Matt Harrison	TEX	20-10	$976
8	Roy Halladay	PHI	24-8	$954
9	Jason Marquis	WAS	13-7	$947
10	Aaron Harang	SD	17-11	$932

(all Pitcher data courtesy of www.covers.com )

Conversely, names like Paul Maholm and JA Happ won’t be surprises on the wallet breaker list but elite arms like Chris Carpenter, Ubaldo, Jimenez, and Jon Lester left their supporters high and dry if you paid for the name not production. (Note, Doug Fister is included for his numbers in Seattle, if we include Detroit he has much better season splits)

Least Profitable Arms
	Name	Team	Team W-L	$
1	Paul Maholm	PIT	7-19	($1,202)
2	Chris Carpenter	STL	16-18	($1,185)
3	J.A. Happ	HOU	7-21	($1,159)
4	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	8-13	($1,081)
5	Jeff Francis	KC	10-21	($1,058)
6	Doug Fister	SEA	5-16	($1,007)
7	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	13-18	($935)
8	Jon Lester	BOS	16-15	($934)
9	Dustin Moseley	SD	5-15	($926)
10	Brett Cecil	TOR	6-14	($843)

As opening day looms on Wednesday (no I don’t count the Tokyo series as the official start to MLB), here are a list of pitchers I have pegged as arms bettors and fantasy owners need to be aware of this year.

Overvalued

Josh Beckett: He gets all the acclaim of being an ace on a World Series contender but I’m not buying Beckett as a top 10 arm in the American League anymore.  Why is this a big deal? He’s consistently priced like an ace despite an ERA that should regress this season amid ongoing concerns about his durability and back issues.  The AL East is as deep a division as you’ll find in baseball so fading Josh could be quite profitable in 2012.

Yu Darvish: He’s the next installment of a foreign sensation to take the majors by storm with major expectations. Yes, Darvish offers better polish than Hideki Irabu, Dice-K, and some of his fellow countrymen but if he’s going to carry a betting price akin to proven arms, there’s going to be value opposing him regularly. It’s probably unfair to throw an unproven commodity under the bus before he’s started a major league game but until I see him withstand the heat of Texas and the rigors of a full season, he’s staying on the overvalued list.

Ryan Vogelsong: Like another major leaguer Colby Lewis before him, Vogelsong’s stint in Japan taught him to pound the strikezone.  Entering the season the Giants have lofty expectations and much of the team’s success will hinge on their starting staff.  After Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner the pressure falls on Vogelsong’s shoulders but his peripherals and K rate from a year ago don’t support ace status or expensive pricing. If he somehow repeats his stat line from a year ago shame on me although I believe there’s an opportunity to bet against him early since a regression seems imminent.

Honorable mentions: Matt Garza, Michael Pineda, CJ Wilson

Undervalued

Cory Luebke: Sure, he pitches for the lowly Padres yet this is a name bettors and fantasy owners need to remember.  As a converted reliever, his outings were limited last year despite his filthy stuff that led to an amazing strikeout rate and impressive control. It’s hard to place a pitcher on this list with a limited offensive supporting cast yet it’s also difficult to turn down an arm that will offer lockdown potential every time he toes the rubber. Luebke is a guy worth exploring as a sizable dog but be leery of laying chalk with a guy who won’t get the run support he needs to be successful on every turn.

Mike Minor: This is the guy who gets lost in the shuffle when you break down the Braves pitching staff. Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, and Jair Jurrens capture headlines yet Minor was as dynamic as any of them down the stretch last year. His robust 9.3K/9 led manager Fredi Gonzalez to name him 3rd on the staff entering the season ahead of Beachy.  I believe he has the chance to surprise in 2012 and playing for a contender in a deep division might keep his price reasonable every 5th day.

Jordan Zimmermann: My pick to be this year’s Ian Kennedy atop the pitching profit list resides in our nation’s capital. Zimmermann wont catch the fanfare of his teammate Stephen Strasburg but does that really matter if he gives you a better chance to win each night and you’re saving.15 to .20 each start? At the age of 26 now well removed from Tommy John surgery, control won’t be a problem and expecting him to post 15 wins is more than plausible.  The major concern I have is the lingering elbow injury to Washington’s closer Drew Storen who will start the year on the DL so blown saves could play a small role in eliminating profit potential with Zimm.

Honorable mentions: Jonathon Niese, Brandown Morrow, Bud Norris