Handicapping Relegation
The end of the season is a tense time for players, fans, and gamblers
By resident EPL Expert James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro )
Over the next eight EPL games, five teams (Blackburn, Bolton, QPR, Wigan and Wolves) will battle to retain EPL status for next season. The sums of cash involved in the EPL ensure the teams and players will be put under immense pressure to perform just to maintain their place in Europe’s most prestigious soccer league. From our standpoint as bettors is how can we use relegation as a useful handicapping angle in each team’s quest for survival.
The common perception is that if you are being chased by a lion you’ll sprint a lot faster than if you are running without the fear of imminent death! Those principles are often applied to professional sports betting through the ‘need to win’ theory. You hear phrases such as “it means more to team A than to team B” or “They will be more focused for it today than their opposition who is squarely in the middle of the pack”. However, these thoughts creep into the minds of the odds makers too so you will see lines tighten for no apparent reason other than teams at the bottom of the ladder are in need to win mode.
Like all good financial disclaimers I’ll state now that past performance is no indicator of future returns. I broke down the performances of the bottom five placed teams from the last five EPL seasons over their final eight games of each respective season. The obvious perception is that fear of relegation will lead to a greater average points haul per game. You would expect with the trap door to potential financial oblivion for both club and player that their results would improve. However, of the 25 campaigns analyzed, only 8 teams saw their average points per game increase during this closing kick. This flies in the face of conventional logic that you hear bantered around all the time about ‘needing to win’ as a viable handicapping angle.
If the stats prove that blindly backing teams to win ‘just because they have to’ is rejected isn’t a valid theory, then we must take a more positional based stance when betting struggling teams. If they continue to play poorly in their final games or in fact decrease their performance levels further, then you must be very cautious in the games where they actually become favorites. They say that home advantage is key in the EPL but for the 5 teams at the bottom of the table this argument does not carry much weight considering Blackburn, Bolton, QPR, Wigan and Wolves have won 16 of 75 at home compared to just 15 of their 74 away games. You will always get far more value on a dog on the road in the EPL, especially a struggling team, so that may provide a better situation to back them than in their own building. Realistically speaking though you should be looking for at least +350 on these teams before you ever consider backing them on the road no matter who their opponent is that day, especially against teams in the top 6 of the table.
This leads us to look at supporting these threatened teams in fixtures against teams locked into mid-table (seventh to fifteenth) spots. These teams are free from concern of either pushing for European qualification or the misery of relegation. Many of their players will already have their minds on summer holidays and may not be completely focused for a tough battle against a team fighting for their life. Also, be aware of teams in those mid table positions that retain an interest in the FA Cup. Their attentions is squarely focused on potential cup glory rather than a mundane EPL end of season game. At least one, maybe more, of the bottom five will win two or more of their final eight games so there is value out there. Identifying games where they offer wagering opportunities is the key but it can be done. Just don’t be the bettor going to the window seeking “value” on a team that must win because as is always the case a fool and his wallet may be soon parted.
Having identified that the best opportunities may be when facing mid table teams I have laid the foundation for you as it pertains to end of the season handicapping. Below are the games that fit our stated criteria and remember that home field advantage appears to mean nothing to the results of these teams yet supporting them on the road should get you at least an extra +125 in value at the betting counter.
31/3/12 Wigan home to Stoke
07/4/12 Bolton home to Fulham and Wolves @ Stoke
10/4/12 Blackburn home to Liverpool
11/4/12 QPR home to Swansea
14/4/12 QPR @ West Brom and Wolves @ Sunderland
21/4/12 Blackburn home to Norwich and Wigan @ Fulham
24/4/12 Bolton @ Aston Villa
28/4/12 Bolton @ Sunderland and Wolves @ Swansea
06/5/12 Bolton home to West Brom , QPR home to Stoke and Wolves home to Everton
It is obviously too early to start predicting exactly which teams will offer value bets since all factors must be considered when placing a wager regarding injuries, suspensions etc. Tomorrows game between Wigan and Stoke gives us some pointers though and illustrates everything we’ve already discussed. Wigan’s poor form and tenuous hold on current premiership status could offer the first of many potential betting spots to fade the lesser sides at home defying the normally accepted relegation desperation.
