Manchester City vs Chelsea

There is no place like home for Manchester City this season in the EPL as their record at Etihad reads played 14 and won 14. They return home tonight for this key game four points adrift of rivals Manchester United in the chase for the league title. Chelsea’s record on the highway is mediocre managing just 5 wins from their 14 games away from Stamford Bridge. A simple glance at the stats tells you this is a sure fire win for Man City but recent events at both clubs and current form tell us it won’t be quite that simple.

City has not performed well lately when it comes to their travels compiling 3 defeats in their last 5 EPL road games allowing bitter rival Manchester United take hold of the table. Oddly enough the shaky road form isn’t evident in home performances as they remain perfect in their own building. However some of this recent success is attributed to the fact they haven’t hosted a team in the top half of the table since January 22nd. City has a bizarre locker room mix of good solid professionals and complete headcases. There is massive pressure on the team today and with personalities like Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez anything is possible. Strong rumors already swirl of significant dressing room unrest over manager Mancini’s apparent leniency towards to the outlandish actions, on and off field, of Balotelli.  Macini’s rigorous training regime also appears to be taking a toll on the player’s legs as the side just hasn’t had the same explosion they did earlier in the year. One more bad result today and I sense the dressing room would be dangerously close to imploding.

Whether or not the Chelsea team bus will belt out a bit of Thin Lizzy on their way to Manchester is anybody’s guess. Either way, the boys are certainly back in town since the departure of former Chelsea boss Andres Villas Boas. AVB  openly took on the formidable Chelsea old guard in the dressing room with only club captain John Terry immune from criticism. At various points of the season Chelsea legends Ashley Cole, Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard were all removed from the starting eleven. Since Boas was sacked on March 4th, interim boss Roberto di Matteo has made it clear this aging contingent of players are very much part of the remaining club season. Four games and 4 wins later under the temporary coach has propelled Chelsea into the quarter finals of the Champions League, the semi final of the FA Cup, and more ominously into 5th place in the Premiership.

Importance of the draw to teams should always be a valuable part of all EPL game analysis. Incredibly though there hasn’t been a draw in the last 13 meetings between the teams and only 1 draw in the last 21 games. Chelsea won the earlier meeting this season 2-1 in London as they weathered an early storm to come back and win the game. City has won the last 2 games in Manchester though by the score of 1-0 last season and 2-1 the season before. Before those 2 victories at home,  Chelsea was victorious in 4 straight at Manchester City and the backbone of those championship caliber teams remains intact. Looking at the total? The last 8 meetings have been split right down the middle with the O/U 4-4 on posted totals of 2.5.

Although a draw or even a loss in this game would not be catastrophic for the home side, they know it would give a further psychological edge to Alex Ferguson’s Red Devils in the chase for Premiership glory. Chelsea has to consider a point here as a great result, serving as another big step in their quest for a 3rd or 4th place EPL finish. City backers should take comfort from a strong home record as Manchester has posted victories in every game at home following an away defeat. Rarely will you find a discounted price on the home team when backing a side with an unblemished record but that’s exactly what we’ll see tonight. For those looking to cash a Chelsea ticket, take heart from the recent return to form of their old stars as they look to rekindle a result from yesteryear and deliver as a very live underdog.