Round 1 stat pack
All stats courtesy of http://www.spreadapedia.com/
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I went through our database and looked for situational stats for the 1st round of games. The most interesting thing that stood out is how prevalent Overs seem to be in the 1st round. While a lot of the ATS data consistently returned around 50%, Over/Unders heavily weighted to one outcome.
All stats date back to 2005
#8 vs. #9 seeds in Round 1 are 14-12-2 ATS, but 19-8-1 Over
Double Digit favorites in Round 1 are 79-4 straight up, 40-41-2 ATS, and 48-34-1 O/U
SEC teams who are seeded between #5 and #9 in the 1st round are only 8-6-1 ATS but 11-3-1 Over
When the O/U is less than or equal to 132, SEC teams seeded between #5 and #9 are 7-2-1 ATS and 8-2 Over the 1st round.
#7 vs. #10 game, when the Over/Under is less than or equal to 133, the Over is 14-3
The last two teams to be #1 seeds out of the SEC were Kentucky in 2010 and Florida in 2007. Billy Donovan’s Florida squad went 4-2 ATS, with 6 Overs and 0 Unders on their way to the National Championship. Calipari’s 2010 Kentucky squad lost in the Elite Eight, but not before compiling a 3-1 ATS and O/U record. Between 2010 Kentucky and 2007 Florida, SEC #1 Seeds holds a 9-1 ATS and 9-1 O/U record in the Tournament.
– Over/Under records by Major Conference in the Opening Games (1st Round)….
– ACC……………….25-12
– Big 12……………24-14
– Big East…………32-22
– Big Ten………….26-13-1
– C-USA……………10-2
– Pac-10…………..21-10
– SEC……………..25-8-1
#3 seeds are 17-11 ATS in the 1st round but double digit #3 seed favorites are 11-6 ATS. Single digit favorites are only 6-5 ATS.
#7 vs. #10 seeds are 6-12 ATS and 15-3 Over in the 1st round when the O/U is less than or equal to 135 points.
#5 vs. #12 seeds are 14-14 ATS, but 21-6-1 O/U. When the O/U is between 130 and 140 points the O/U is 3-0-1.
ACC teams #9 seeds or higher are 6-3 ATS and have a 6-3 game record in 1st round games.
Favorites between -6 and -9,22-15 ATS but 27-10 Over
#4 Seeds between -6 and -9, are 10-5 ATS and 12-3 O/U
#9 seeds are 2-6 ATS when the over/under is between 127-134 points.
#5 seeds are 1-4 ATS when the O/U is between 120-125
