The voice of reason
When you look like this, you know the opening weekend in Vegas has been a success
by Michael Dugan (follow him on twitter @jbplayhouse)
The NCAA tournament is perhaps the best three-week stretch on the American sporting calendar. The first Thursday and Friday, in particular, are spectacular. They’ve come to represent a de facto national holiday, without a doubt 2 of the least productive days in the United States, as millions suddenly fall prey to a 48-hour bug that forces them to stay home and watch basketball all day. For the other brave souls who miraculously make it to work, productivity is negative since they spend the day streaming games, using the following Monday to make up for the accounting errors made during games.
For years now, a select group of buddies and I meet in Las Vegas for that opening weekend in what has become our own little tradition. While it certainly has become a bit harder as we’ve grown older, had children, and moved to different corners of the country, the core of the group remains intact.
After each trip we all leave town with another year’s worth of memories, the residuals of a massive hangover and the promise to do it all again the following season. Rarely, however, do we leave with any actual money in our pocket. So while I’d love share all the secrets we have learned and all the massive hauls each one of use have taken home over the years, I can’t do that. The only thing I can do is share five sure-fire ways to stay in the red while betting on the NCAA tournament:
* Plying yourself with booze for 16 straight hours 4 days in a row
Sure, it’s fun and undoubtedly good for you, but, surprisingly, there seems to be an adverse relationship between consuming large amounts of alcohol and turning a profit. Strange as it sounds, some studies have shown that binge drinking can hamper the decision-making process (Moving forward, alcohol will be a common theme).
* Placing multiple bets just to get more drink tickets because a free cocktail always tastes best
Most books on The Strip will throw you a bone and hand out complimentary drink vouchers each time you make a wager at the betting window. Real savvy drinkers have spotted the obvious loophole, taking advantage of the system by slyly placing even more bets. The problem, of course, is that you can actually lose those bets but unless you fire at the window, how do you actually cash a ticket?
*Betting every game
There are 32 games over those first 2 days. That sounds like a lot but when you have a buddy who reads Seth Davis’ work religiously and watches Gameday every Saturday morning, you know he has an edge over the guys setting lines for a living. So what if you’ve never seen Creighton play and have no idea who their opponent is – go for it, your buddy knows something.
*Running to the window to bet 2nd halves despite not knowing the lines or teams you plan to bet on until you get there
Betting for the sake of betting, while it certainly sounds logical, tends to backfire. Again, alcohol factors into this equation quite heavily, with some longtime observers claiming that there is a strong associative relationship between blood-alcohol level and this particular strategy.
*Making sure your biggest bet of the day is always the last game of the night
Despite conventional wisdom, chasing is not foolproof. You’ve lost all day, so it can’t continue into the
night, right? While the logic is sound, some might say there’s an underlying reason for the earlier losses and by chasing you are merely doubling down using the same type of thinking that got you in the hole in the first place.
There are many, many more fail proof Vegas strategies where these came from, including hitting the tables to recoup the losses, parlaying the no. 1 seeds on the halftime line, etc. – but if you stay true to these main five, I’d say the odds of repeating our experience are in your favor. Good luck on your Vegas trips and remember the name of the game is fun, leaving town with profits is only a bonus.
