Crowning 101: What to learn from the CBI

Posted by Todd on Mar 13, 2012 in NCAAB

by Will (follow him on twitter @fullmarx12)

This week, 68 of the best basketball teams in the country will begin their chase for a national title. At the same time, 32 more teams will compete in the NIT, hoping to turn the disappointment of missing a trip to the NCAAs into a trip to Madison Square Garden. Still beyond that though, far from the national radar, sits the wonder that is the College Basketball Invitational. Here season-long mediocrity is celebrated and rewarded – as much as paying $35k for the privilege of hosting a first-round game can be considered a reward.

In recent years, though, the CBI has turned out to be a legitimate proving ground for teams looking to rebuild. VCU’s much-heralded run to the Final Four last year was preceded by a CBI championship in 2010; similarly, Creighton made a run to the CBI finals last year before falling to Oregon. This year, they are MVC tournament champions and one of the stronger mid-major teams in the country. So among this year’s 16-team field, who has the best chance of turning a strong CBI showing into a successful 2012-2013 campaign?

Evansville (16-15, 9-9 MVC):

Scoring was rarely the issue this season for Evansville, as the Purple Aces finished 24th in the nation in 3-point FG% and 12th in FT%. Most notably they came within a point of a season sweep of MVC tournament champion Creighton, winning at home and losing the rematch in Omaha 93-92 in OT. The offense for Evansville revolves around guard Colt Ryan, who averaged 20.2 PPG this year and will likely be the focal point of the team next year in his senior season. Evansville will host Princeton as slight favorites in the first round, looking to improve upon last year’s second round exit from this same tournament. At 17-10-1 ATS, the Aces were able to stay well ahead of the oddsmakers’ curve this year; they will now look to become the 3rd MVC team to make the CBI finals in the five-year history of the event (Bradley 2008, Creighton 2011).

Princeton (19-10, 10-4 Ivy):

The Purple Aces’ first round opponent could prove to be a tough out. While much of the attention in the Ivy League went to Harvard securing their first NCAA bid since 1946, perhaps no one was hotter down the stretch than Princeton. A three-point loss at Harvard was the Tigers’ only blemish in their last nine contests, including home wins over both the Crimson and Ivy runner-up Penn in the season finale. Before conference play, the Tigers notched road wins against both Rutgers and FSU and at 18-8, Princeton had the strongest ATS record this year of any CBI participant. Only a year removed from taking Kentucky to the final shot in the NCAA Tournament, Princeton will likely challenge Harvard for the Ivy League’s automatic bid next year.

Oregon State (19-14, 7-11 Pac-12):

The Beavers are familiar with the CBI; this will mark their third trip to this event in the past four seasons, including 2009 when they defeated UTEP for the title. This year’s OSU squad did not struggle to put up points, finishing 10th in the nation with 78.9 PPG and rating highly in most offensive efficiency and tempo categories. Those that did not subject themselves to Pac-12 hoops this year may have first noticed OSU with their upset of Washington in the conference tournament, which likely denied the Huskies an NCAA bid. With only one senior on the team (Kevin McShane, 1.5 PPG), the future looks bright in Corvallis as nearly the entire squad should return to compete in a conference still struggling to regain its national footing. The road to next season begins with a home game against Western Illinois, where OSU is currently a double digit favorite. If Colorado can make it to the NCAA Tournament this year, why not Oregon State next season?

Butler (20-14, 11-7 Horizon):

Losing a player early to the NBA will impact any mid-major. When you lose two players early in consecutive years, as did Butler with the departures of Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, it will affect even the strongest of programs. As a result, this year’s regression should not have been a surprise. Public betting perception seemed to have anticipated a third straight Final Four, though, as Butler finished the season a woeful 11-18-2 ATS – worst among CBI participants. This year Butler portrayed the defensive tenacity that became their recent trademark, allowing only 61.0 PPG, but struggled on the offensive end. Brad Stevens’ track record means that his team will likely be motivated for their first round game Wednesday vs Delaware where Butler sits as a 4 possession favorite, and a few wins could help build for next year when they will have to replace another important piece from their Final Four teams in Ronald Nored.

Will one of these teams win the CBI and earn the title of “America’s 101st best team?” Perhaps. If nothing else, though, the CBI provides a few schools with a chance to build toward next year – and gives gamblers a few more opportunities to watch college hoops with a vested interest.

Team	Underclassmen PPG	Underclassmen RPG
N Dakota St	64.2	28.9
Oregon St	43.8	19.9
Delaware	42.1	15.9
Butler	38.1	22.4
Quinnipiac	31.1	26.4
Penn	28.6	13.4
Pittsburgh	24.4	19.3
TCU	23.4	5.2
Wofford	23.3	20.5
Western Ill	23.1	9.4
San Fran	23	12.8
Princeton	17.4	11.3
Evansville	15.8	9.4
Milwaukee	14.1	7.7
Wash St	6.7	5.7
Wyoming	6.3	5.7