NBA Marketwatch
by Rob Perez (Follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob )
BUY
BOSTON CELTICS
11-10 team record, 11-10-0 ATS
Old, wrinkly, and well past their prime.
Ladies and gentleman, your 2012 Boston Celtics.
This team struggles to score points, seems to be on another planet at times, and barely mustered a split from the lowly Cavaliers this week.
Mediocre ATS record, mediocre SU record but like any good investor I see opportunity … no better time to buy this veteran gang than right now … LOW.
Why?
Despite all of their flaws, Boston is one of three veteran teams (Boston, San Antonio, LA Lakers) you can trust to win when it matters.
Even though we are only 21 games into their NBA campaign, this is a pivotal time for teams to separate from the rest of the pack. If you are able to create some breathing room in the conference standings now you get the luxury of resting before the playoffs.
Of all teams, the Celtics know/need this most.
Right around this time last year, the Celtics put together two modest winning streaks and rolled off 8 of 11. They built a nice little cushion and went into, “we’re ok with 3rd place in the East” mode, where all of their regular season value evaporated into thin air.
IF they are able to string a winning streak together now, they know they can coast through the back end of the regular season into the playoffs.
They are relatively healthy, sans Rondo’s wrist injury, and if you ever wanted to bet on the Celtics … NOW is the time. NOT when they win 8 of their next 10.
LA CLIPPERS
13-7 team record, 11-8-1 ATS
Despite their popularity amongst the public, great overall record, and being anointed the “trendy” pick every time they play … there is still tremendous value in the Clips.
Even with the thumping they took tonight at the hands of Denver at the back end of a brutal stretch, this team isn’t going anywhere but up in the Western conference.
At this point, I would usually say “value gone, stay away”. However, the OVER has hit at a high frequency in Clipper games … and by a wide margin. The Clippers have been scoring at will with CP3 back in the lineup, and until books can adjust to the Clippers’ most recent box scores + superb play on the court, feel free to bet on them at will especially with 2 other able ball handlers in the consummate veteran Chauncey Billups and Moe Williams to assume responsibilities when Paul gets a blow.
It is time to STOP betting the Clippers whenever the OVERs in their games stop hitting … not if/when the Clippers stop covering.
SELL
Orlando Magic
13-9 team record, 11-11-0 ATS
Wait, what? The Magic are .500 ATS?!?!?
I’ve said this multiple times and I will say it again: The Orlando Magic are the worst team in the NBA without Dwight Howard. They are worse than their potential as the worst team in the NBA when Dwight Howard doesn’t try and is joking with other bench players during the kiss cam while down by 30 in Philadelphia.
They have been a pathetic bet of late despite the biggest ‘moose’ of the NBA season thus far in covering @ PHI.
This team is on the verge of being the sequel to the #wequitwizards . They dont care and it’s because their ‘leader’ has mentally checked out from being competitive.
Dwight Howard is like the jackass college senior who already has a job lined up and intends to coast through his last 4 months of school while the rest of you work your assess off to just graduate on time. His work ethic is contagious, because he has achieved the top/currently has everything — and will be receiving a max contract this offseason worth millions and millions and millions of dollars.
Until the air clears with the Howard situation, do not invest your hard-earned money in this joke of a team.
They have scored LESS than 85 points in 6 of their last 9 games. Three of those 6 include: 56, 67, and 69 point outbursts.
Do you know how hard that is to do in the NBA? You literally have to shoot less than 30% from the field given every normalized metric for calculating tempo.
Kudos to the Magic for defying the odds and accomplishing this feat 3x in a 9 game span.
DETROIT PISTONS
4-20 team record, 7-17 ATS
If you like donating your money to the Sportsbooks of Las Vegas, feel free to bet on the Detroit Pistons.
DET has lost 17 of 19 games and are crushing wallets with their ATS results in that span.
I am a huge proponent of ‘buying low’ but I am not a proponent of buying “Lehman Brothers” low.
The talent on the team isn’t half bad but when your three-point shooting small forward, Austin Daye, takes 16 games to make his first three-pointer … you’re in trouble.
I saw Ben Wallace SHOOT A THREE the other night. BEN WALLACE. The good news is that he only missed the rim by six feet, a foot closer than the spread, so every one with a “UNDER 7 feet from rim” ticket was able to cash.
This team has zero support from its fans, a brutally bad coach, and SEVERAL bad contracts (i.e. Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey) that will limit Joe Dumars’ ability to acquire new talent.
Take a look at their ATS losses. They aren’t even close to covering, and it’s not because they’re getting moosed. They don’t have an offense, a clue how to play defense, and have no chance of competing as long as the NBA averages 92 offensive and 92 defensive possessions per game.
If you watch this Pistons team play, they have zero direction or hope. Admittedly, they were one of my “sleepers” before the season started. I thought their one bright spot, Brandon Knight, might be enough to propel them to a near .500 finish and maybe even an 8 seed.
He’s played well, and will be an amazing trade chip for Joe Dumars when the Pistons owners demand that he start dumping contracts.
That is a depressing thought — You want your young stud to play well so you can trade him.
This “sleeper” is not waking up any time soon.
