Marketwatch: College Basketball
by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakebruce)
BUY:
Baylor
(2-4 @Oklahoma State, 2-8 Kansas)
Just the team Baylor needs to see at this point to right their ATS ship. They absolutely destroyed the Pokes in their first meeting in Waco 106-65!! Now, I don’t expect that kind of a drubbing in Stillwater but I do expect a road cover. OSU has played pretty well lately while Baylor has burned their ATS backers yet this is a match-up they can exploit and could be undervalued. After the OSU game, Baylor has a home revenge date looming with KU who took the Bears to the woodshed in the first meeting. Look for this game to be hotly contested but I feel Baylor will pull away behind the strength of their home crowd
Missouri
(2-4 Kansas, 2-6 @Oklahoma)
I wont go as far as calling Missouri Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to home/road splits but they’re getting close. Missouri needed every ounce of energy to dispose of Texas Monday while KU easily clipped OU for the 2nd time this year. However, things are about to get a lot tougher for Bill Self’s crew this week as they get into the heart of their Big XII schedule. Missouri knows they need to show the nation they are one of the top teams and that 75% of their body of work wasnt a fluke and I believe they’ll prove it with a comfortable win over Kansas. The Tigers then head to Norman for a date with OU where they’ll be installed as road favs. Look for the momentum from a win over KU to propel them through this game as Mizzou makes a push towards the Big XII title.
SELL:
Kentucky
(2-4 @South Carolina, 2-7 Florida)
Well look who is on a little ATS winning streak these days. Sadly it comes to a crashing halt this week once they go on the road to face South Carolina at just the time bettor confidence in UK has been restoredr. However, we will not fall victim in this game but rather fade Kentucky in what could prove to be a tricky road test. The Wildcats return home to face Florida for a great SEC showdown Tuesday night. While Kentucky may be borderline invincible SU in Lexington, the Gators will give them a pretty good test ATS.
Ohio State
(2-4 @Wisconsin, 2-7 Purdue)
Buckeyes have been money lately and now go on the road to face the pesky Badgers of Wisconsin. It all hinges on whatever Wisky can do offensively in this game since we know their defense is top-notch. If they can get OSU to play their kind of tempo, we may see a narrow upset at the Kohl Center. Ohio State returns home to face Purdue later in the week and will be listed as a rather large favorite. I believe Purdue will offer serious value if the game is north of double digits especially if the Buckeyes are still licking their wounds from a bruising street fight vs Wisconsin.
Louisville
(2-4 Rutgers, 2-6 Connecticut)
The Cardinals have been hot going 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU including 2 outright wins as road dogs against Pittsburgh and Seton Hall. Louisville has 2 games in their own building this week against Rutgers and UConn. Problem is Rutgers should look automatic given the Ville’s current form but the line will be a tad inflated and the Scarlet Knights can keep it within the number. UConn comes to town later in the week as a desperate side in the Big East suddenly unable to find any consistency at the offensive end. Coach Calhoun’s team has put together some lousy ATS numbers of late so begin looking for value with his side especially in the underdog role vs Louisville.
