Bookmaker Bracketology: Version 2.0
Here are my updated projections and spin on industry leader Joe Lunardi’s bracket prognostications. Amazing what one week’s worth of games can do to the power 16 seeds and as a result written analysis accompanies the elite teams while lines 5-16 highlight those squads improving their seeding while others are playing to secure a spot on the always precarious bubble.
1: Syracuse, Kentucky, Ohio State, Kansas
I feel much more comfortable with Joe’s top line this week than I did 7 days ago. Syracuse, Kentucky, and Ohio State are the three best teams in the country in my opinion and barring a collapse between now and selection Sunday, will find themselves here going into the dance. Kansas has exceeded expectations thus far but I’m still not ready to sign off on the Jayhawks elite potential just yet. The home and home series with Missouri along with road trips to both Baylor and Kansas State will tell us more about the Jayhawks post-season prospects over the next few weeks
Stock falling: Kansas
2: Missouri, North Carolina, Duke, Baylor
There wasn’t a single team that had a more impressive win this past week than the Missouri Tigers. The veteran team from Columbia went into Waco and owned the Bears right from the opening tip. I’m still of the belief they may be the best team in the entire conference (Yes, above Kansas) while Scott Drew continues to amaze me with his inadequacy as a head coach despite top tier talent at Baylor. As for Duke, they won’t draw my ire this week yet this team is a far cry from previous editions and there will be other ACC losses in the coming weeks.
Stock rising: Missouri
Stock falling: Baylor, Duke
3: UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown, Michigan St
I didn’t feel comfortable with any of the 3 seeds a week ago however I now feel validated with the current mix of teams appearing on the line. UNLV continues to fly under the radar playing in the Mountain West but this team has elite talent and is a more athletic version of last year’s BYU team sans Jimmer. WVU provides the best case study in why polls mean nothing because they aren’t ranked this week yet have a stronger profile than almost the entire field. I’m still a bit skeptical of MSU’s guard play however they still deserve to be included on this line.
Stock rising: UNLV
Stock falling: None
4: Michigan, Indiana, Creighton, Florida
Creighton continues to rack up wins and will end up atop the MVC standings along with Wichita State barring an unforeseen collapse. Michigan has a daunting schedule coming up and they’re still without a true road win despite a valiant comeback effort Saturday vs Arkansas that came up just short. Florida remains the one team no one should want to see on their side of the draw because they have a diverse blend of talent which will allow them to compete with anyone. As for the Hoosiers, I wasn’t buying them before and I’m still not buying them now.
Stock rising: Florida
Stock falling: Indiana
5: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Uconn, San Diego State
Stock rising: Marquette
Stock falling: Uconn
6: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
Stock rising: Wisconsin
Stock falling: Gonzaga
7: Seton Hall, Murray State, Florida State, Illinois
Stock rising: Florida State
Stock falling: Seton Hall, Illinois
8: Alabama, Wichita State, Mississippi State, Virginia
Stock rising: Wichita State, Mississippi State
Stock falling: Alabama
9: Harvard, Purdue, Dayton, California
Stock rising: California, Dayton
Stock falling: Purdue
10: Temple, Louisville, Cincinnati, New Mexico
Stock rising: Cincinnati
Stock falling: New Mexico
11: Memphis, Xavier, Minnesota, St Louis
Stock rising: Minnesota
Stock falling: Memphis
12: Middle Tennessee State, Stanford, Marshall, Iowa State, North Carolina State, Southern Miss
Stock rising: Middle Tennessee State, Iowa State, North Carolina State
Stock falling: Stanford
13: Davidson, Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Iona
Stock rising: Long Beach State
Stock falling: Iona
14: Nevada, Akron, UCF, Belmont
Stock rising: UCF
Stock falling: Akron (my projected MAC champ: Ohio), Nevada (my projected WAC champ: Hawaii)
15: George Mason, Weber State, Bucknell, Cleveland State
Stock rising: Cleveland State (projected Horizon champion)
Stock falling: Bucknell (projected Patriot League champion)
16: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, UT-Arlington, Norfolk State, LIU Brooklyn, Mississippi Valley State
Stock rising: UNC-Asheville, LIU Brooklyn
Stock falling: Boston University (my projected America East champ: Stony Brook)
