Bookmaker bracketology
We’re now less than 2 months until selection Sunday and I definitely have an opinion on the current projected field. Each week I’ll break down bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s bracket with my Vegas perspective of whose stock is rising and falling as it pertains to my adjusted power rankings. Written analysis accompanies the power 16 while lines 5-16 highlight teams improving their seeding while others hang on for dear life.
1: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Baylor
This line is far from iron clad although for my money 2 teams are virtual locks. Syracuse continues to boat race all comers and UK’s dominance persists even though they’re forcing bettors into bankruptcy with ATS futility. Call me skeptical Duke but this Blue Devil team doesn’t defend like past editions. As for Baylor, well they’re still coached by Scott Drew so expect a bad loss or two down the stretch. I’ll reluctantly keep the Devils on the top line for now although it wouldn’t shock me if they were upset early in the tournament. Last night’s blowout loss to KU doesn’t mean Baylor isn’t elite but I’m not buying them as a #1 seed right now.
Stock falling: Baylor
2: Ohio State, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina
Amazing that the Big XII could potentially have 3 teams among the top 8 seeds in the big dance and for what it’s worth I’m selling that potential scenario. Ohio State will climb the ladder and make their way to the 1 seed before the season ends while I think Missouri is currently playing well above their capabilities and will struggle on the highway throughout conference play.
Stock rising: Ohio State
Stock falling: Missouri
3: Indiana, Georgetown, Uconn, Michigan St
Can I take my pick of which team doesn’t belong here? Given the lot we’re working with I’ll say the Hoosiers may have already peaked and they won’t be here when the season ends. Don’t worry Big Ten fans, I feel the same about Michigan St who has rebounded nicely from back to back losses to start the season yet remains grossly over valued in my eyes given questionable guard play. Georgetown is a nice side but the 3 seed is typically reserved for elite teams and I need to see more of the Hoyas before I’ll believe in them. Uconn has the pieces to make them very dangerous come March although their lack of a floor leader will limit the team’s chances to repeat as national champs.
Stock rising: Uconn
Stock falling: Indiana
4: Vanderbilt, UNLV, Creighton, Florida
This line has the most intriguing compilation of talent with each team boasting stars capable of taking their respective teams deep into the tournament. It’s amazing to see a team from the MVC listed this high but the Bluejays have the best mid major player in Doug McDermott. However, their inability to consistently defend will ultimately be what keeps them from a deep run while the other three teams have much more offensive balance and athletes capable of making game changing plays late.
Stock rising: Vanderbilt
Stock falling: Creighton
5: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Michigan, St Mary’s
Stock rising: Michigan
Stock falling: Gonzaga
6: West Virginia, Virginia, Seton Hall, Illinois
Stock rising: Virginia
Stock falling: Seton Hall
7: Marquette, Kansas State, Murray State, Mississippi St
Stock rising: Marquette, Mississippi State
Stock falling: Kansas St
8: Purdue, Wisconsin, Alabama, Louisville
Stock rising: Alabama
Stock falling: Purdue, Louisville
9: Harvard, New Mexico, Stanford, Wichita State
Stock rising: Everyone on this line is seeded way too low given Purdue/Louisville on the 8 line
10: California, Dayton, Texas, Temple
Stock rising: California
Stock falling: Texas, Dayton
11: Saint Louis, Northwestern, Memphis, Florida State, Xavier
Stock rising: Xavier
Stock falling: Northwestern
12: Brigham Young, Cincinnati, Oral Roberts, Iona, Marshall
Stock rising: BYU, Cincinnati
Stock falling: Iona, Marshall
13: Middle Tennessee, Belmont, Long Beach St, Davidson
Stock rising: Long Beach State
Stock falling: Belmont
14: Nevada, Colorado State, Akron, Milwaukee
Stock rising: Nevada
Stock falling: Milwaukee (my projected Horizon champ: Cleveland State)
15: Texas Arlington, Bucknell, Weber State, George Mason
Stock rising: Weber State (projected Big Sky champion)
Stock falling: George Mason (my projected Colonial champ: Drexel)
16: Stony Brook, Texas Southern, Norfolk St, Pennsylvania, UNC Ashville, LIU Brooklyn
Stock rising: Norfolk St
Stock falling: Pennsylvania (can’t see them winning the Ivy), LIU Brooklyn (my projected NEC champ: Wagner)
