Why different isn’t always good
Hanging an aggressive price in the NFL has consequences
I’m asked all the time by aspiring handicappers and sports radio personalities why my true number on a game varies with what’s available on the actual betting boards. The truth is that all bookmaker’s regularly find themselves in a prisoner’s dilemma as it pertains to NFL football. You can hang a number and remain steadfast that it’s the right price but as the one sided action begins to pile up you enter dangerous territory.
Let’s take a look at the Saints vs 49ers game today to better illustrate my point:
At most betting shops the Saints opened as 3 pt favorites on Saturday night. By Sunday the game went to 3.5 because the steady flow of public and sharp money drove the price through a field goal. I have my own opinion on every game and for this contest believe the true line should be closer to Saints -1.5. However, a bookmaker’s opinion is only worth one limit bet from the sharpest customers if the rest of the market offers a price on the key number rather than a half point below it. The follow-up question is then why as a good bookmaker are you inclined to mirror the market around key numbers rather than lock up all of the business by trusting your reads?
If I were to make the game 2.5 while everyone else decides to use a 3 even if I believe the 49ers are the going to be the sharp side, every bettor in the free world with a bankroll comes into my establishment and lays the favorite -2.5 with limited repercussions. Why do I say limited when after all this is gambling? The reason is two fold: educated gamblers laying the -2.5 subsequently head right up the street and bet the dog +3 giving themselves an opportunity to side the game. The best case scenario for a bettor looking to side a game is having it fall 3 so one bet wins while the other pushes and the only risk is the juice associated with one losing wager. In the ideal scenario a gambler prefers to bet the favorite -2.5 and grab the dog +3.5 in an attempt to middle on the 3 however this scenario is rare, especially during the playoffs. As any bookmaker will tell you the best line is one that generates two way action without moving because exposure is limited. Only when a spread has wild fluctuations or a stubborn bookmaker does real danger begin.
When it comes to today’s game don’t be surprised when those who grabbed the dog at its peak of +4 back up a portion of their action at -3 if the price continues to crash (assuming they didn’t do so on the open). Home dogs in the divisional round don’t come around often and thinking like a professional is seeking line value and making a strong move on an advantageous position with high upside by mitigating risk.
