Market watch
Is it finally time to buy Kentucky after 11 straight failed covers?
Bruce Friedman is up to his old tricks letting bettors know who they should be looking to ride or fade for the coming week.
BUY
Kentucky
(1-14 @Tennessee, 1-17 Arkansas)
November 19th, 2001; Why is that date important? It’s actually the last time UK covered the spread. I’ll admit I was on this team to buy the first week I did the column and was dead wrong. If I’m wrong about them this time rest assured they won’t be appearing on this list again and I may keep them as a sell commodity for the rest of the season. UK travels to Tennessee who just beat Florida but by Volunteer standards are way down this year under Cuonzo Martin. Kentucky really should not have a problem here in a game I make the Wildcats roughly 9.5 pt favorites. Arkansas has played great at home but the Razorbacks aren’t exactly juggernauts on the highway. This game SHOULD get ugly as I expect UK to just hammer on the Hogs.
Ohio State
(1-15 Indiana)
Only one game on tap this week for the Buckeyes and they enter Sunday’s showdown off a gross loss at Illinois. The Buckeyes will be ready to exact revenge for the loss to the Hoosiers and you can fully expect 110% max effort in this spot. Indiana was oh so close to losing to Penn State and I believe the Hoosiers won’t be able to rely on the 3 ball throughout conference play. Indiana is back and they’re a damn good team but at Ohio State I know OSU will play their best game of the year reminisce of the effort against Duke. I’ll dabble tOSU here anything -13 or better.
Missouri
(1-14 Texas, 1-16 Texas A&M)
Missouri suffered their first loss of the season against Kansas State Saturday but bounced back nicely against ISU last night and will return to Columbia to host both Texas and Texas A&M this week. First on the slate is a date with the Horns who have been unstoppable at home but struggled away from Austin with a one man band in Jacovan Brown. Texas has struggled in conference failing to cover in last trio of games against Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas A&M. The Aggies are far from road tested themselves and despite covering at Texas last night, looked rather anemic offensively. I just can’t see them being able to match Mizzou’s offense and think this game could be decided by halftime.
SELL
Michigan State
(1-14 @Northwestern, 1-17 @Michigan)
HUGE win over Wisconsin in Madison last week for MSU and they’re fresh off a steamroll job of Iowa but now face two road challenges where I expect a major letdown against Northwestern before their in-state showdown with Michigan. This will be a very emotional week leading up to the rivalry game considering that is all the players are talking about with minimal focus placed on their trip to Evanston. Look for Michigan State to be an inflated favorite for this road game against a scrappy NU team capable of getting hot from the outside and pulling the upset. If the Spartans lose SU to the Wildcats, I feel they will be emotionally battered and come out flat against their in-state rivals as well.
New Mexico
(1-14 @Wyoming, 1-18 San Diego State)
New Mexico is one of the hottest teams in the country winners of 12 straight. They’ll open MWC play on the road against a Wyoming team playing very good under the radar basketball themselves right now. This should be a tough road contest for Los Lobos. After their trip to Laramie UNM travels back home to face a San Diego State team that has only lost two games themselves who could enter of a disappointing home loss to UNLV. Two tough matchups for New Mexico this week and I expect a little bit of luster to come off Steve Alford’s bunch.
Kansas
(1-14 Iowa State, 1-16 Baylor)
Kansas has been playing great basketball lately; dominating Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech to start conference play 3-0 ATS. The Jayhawks will host their next two conference opponents and I believe the lines you’ll see will be inflated. I know Iowa State will compete with Kansas because the Hawks will be looking ahead to a showdown against undefeated Baylor in the coming days. Look for ISU to keep the game close and stay inside the number all game long. If KU escapes the ISU game, Baylor provides formidable competition themselves entering the Phog. Look for Kansas to be ovepriced at home considering the Bears were +3 at KSU proving that sometimes there’s plenty of profit to be made from fading the college hoops bluebloods.
