Key numbers
When betting the NFL the question of buying points around key numbers always factor into the equation. As a bookmaker, it’s no surprise some houses prevent customers from buying off of the 3 because empirical evidence supports the frequency with which pro games land on a field goal and allowing bettors to buy to 2.5 changes the mindset for booking a game.
However, I’ve never understood why books won’t let customers buy onto a push since I’m the first to tell bettors that in the long run juice becomes my best friend because bettors simply can’t outrun it. Although I’d be remiss if I didn’t say there are times to lay a few extra cents around the 3, 7, and 10 that can shift the balance of power to the player. NFL math says you’re better off taking +3, -130 than you are +2.5, -110 while the same methodology also applies laying -120 to buy from 6.5 to 7 or 7.5 down to 7 along with 10.5 down to 10 or 9.5 up to 10.
Below you’ll find a breakdown of NFL results from the roughly 6,000 games played since 1988 that fell between 1 and 14.
Adjustments have been made for rounding purposes and the remaining 31.5% of games played during this stretch not listed ended with a differential of more than 14 points while 6 games during this time period resulted in a tie.
