Market Watch: College hoops (January 6 – 12)
Bruce Friedman shares his opinion of who bettors should be buying and selling this coming week in college buckets.
@notthefakebruce
BUYS
Wisconsin
(1-8 @ Michigan, 1-12 @ Purdue)
Wisconsin rarely loses at home in conference let alone back to back games especially as 17 pt chalk they did against Iowa. The Badgers followed up that clunker losing a heartbreaker against MSU and now go on the road into tough environments to face Michigan and Purdue. The Wolverines lost a brutal game of their own in Bloomington last night but still own a 5-2 ATS record during their last 7 games. I’d have to imagine practices in Madison haven’t exactly been fun and fully expect Coach Ryan’s team to hunker down on the defensive end during this road trip. Wisconsin should enter Ann Arbor as slight dogs and I expect them to win the game outright. Purdue’s shocking blowout loss in Happy Valley last night may eliminate some of the value you’ll find on the Badgers vs the Boilers but I’m not high on Purdue and will look at Wisconsin as long as they’re dogged in West Lafayette.
North Carolina
(1-7 Boston College, 1-10 Miami)
There’s no tougher environment for ACC opponents than playing in Chapel Hill as BC and Miami will find out this week. UNC is finally gelling and playing their best basketball of the year scoring 100 points in each of their last two games. They have been at home since the first week of December and these are the final home games before a 2 game road trip that will take them to Florida State and Virginia Tech. I plan to ride them in their final two games of the homestand and will look to sell them next week depending on how these two games end up falling. Let me say I don’t envy the undermanned Eagles or Hurricanes who will feel the wrath of Tarheel nation this week.
UConn
(1-7 @ Rutgers, 1-9 West Virginia)
UConn took a punch in the mouth against Seton Hall the other night and now travel to Rutgers where the Scarlet Knights have lost their first two conference games to USF and WVU since upsetting Florida. UConn knows what Rutgers is capable of and they will not take this team lightly so I look for this game to be am absolute blowout. UConn then returns home to face WVU and this game should prove that the Huskies loss at Seton Hall was just a hiccup using home cooking against Coach Huggins to right the ship.
SELL
Kansas State
(1-7 Missouri, 1-10 Baylor)
Kansas State had been on a roll until running into their in-state rival Kansas on Wednesday. They have Missouri and Baylor coming to Manhattan which will be HUGE matchups and games I’m not sure this team is ready to win in the Octagon. Missouri enters off a complete drubbing against Oklahoma pounding the Sooners 87-49 which improved their record to 14-0. I look for Missouri to come into Manhattan and get the win after the Wildcats will be a bit beat up and deflated off their loss to KU. Three days later KSU hosts another undefeated team in the form of the Baylor Bears and despite their hot start the Bears are 0-3 ATS the L3 and may finally offer value when they travel to Manhattan
St. Mary’s
(1-9 San Francisco, 1-12 Gonzaga)
St. Mary’s now has the added pressure of being back in the Top 25 and a target on their back. The Gaels have been disposing of teams rather easily the last handful of games and were on an 8-2 ATS streak until San Diego derailed them on Thursday. USF will travel to Moraga in the middle of a 1-4 ATS skid and it will look awfully easy to take the Gaels because they are at home and will have that lofty ranking. Following the game against the Dons the Zags come rollin into town and they always feel they are the class of the conference. Gonzaga has been on a six game win streak SU but are only 4-4 ATS their L8 so I expect Mark Few’s team to have value in this game and actually beat St Mary’s outright to claim supremacy in the WCC.
Seton Hall
(1-7 @ Providence, 1-10 DePaul)
Coming off two HUGE home wins against West Virginia and UConn the Pirates now travel to the Dunkin Donuts Center to take on the Friars who always challenge good opponents at home. I’m looking for a letdown and believe when they go home to play an easily overlooked team like DePaul they wont play up to their talent and this game will be closer than people think.
