WWE meets the NBA: Cashing in on starpower
Can Vince McMahon’s business model really help your NBA handicapping?
by Rob Perez ( @world_wide_wob)
When asked by my friends why I love the NBA my answer is the same every time: it is the WWE of sports.
How has the WWE survived this long despite a homogenous fan base and how did they eliminate WCW during wrestling’s glory days?
STAR POWER.
D Generation X vs. The Nation
Stone Cold vs. The Undertaker
The Rock vs. Triple H
Kane, Mankind, the Big Show, the McMahon family.
If you followed the WWE during its prime in the late 1990s/early 2000s, you had something to root for EVERY match. If it was the Intercontinental Title bout (the WWE equivalent of the Poinsettia Bowl), the European Championship (think NIT of college hoops), etc.. you cared because superstars were participating, and you were guaranteed to stand up and yell “OHHHHH!!!!!” or “WOW!!!” at least once. You didn’t care what the wrestler’s records were, let’s be honest.
You knew you were going to get a show.
Now, the WWE has lost its stardom to Hollywood, and is struggling to sell 20,000 tickets to Wrestlemania, their Super Bowl, in Miami.
I know what you’re thinking by now, how the hell is this related to handicapping the strike shortened NBA nightly grind but don’t worry, we’ll get there.
There is no sport, (professional, college, or amateur) that has the star power of the NBA.
I love the NBA because I can sit down, turn on Kings vs. Wizards and am entertained as if it were a playoff game.
If you are not familiar with the NBA, the Kings and Wizards have been two of the worst teams, statistically, in the league the past five years.
This year, the Kings are 2-3 and the Wizards are 0-5.
In the MLB, this matchup is the record equivalent to Padres vs. Pirates.
In the NFL, this matchup is the record equivalent to Browns vs. Rams.
Out of those three games, which are you most inclined to watch?
ANSWER: Kings vs. Wizards.
WHY? The Kings and Wizards field two of the most exciting young teams in the league with top lottery draft picks: John Wall, Jimmer Ferdette, Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, SportsCenter Top 10 resident: JaVelle McGee, and one of the best scorer’s in the league: Marcus Thornton.
If you go to/watch this game, you are guaranteed to yell “WOW!!!” at least two times when John Wall breaks somebody’s ankles, JaVelle McGee blocks a ball into the upper deck, Jimmer hits a three pointer from the parking lot, or DeMarcus knocks out his couch.
Hate to break it to you, but dead last teams in other sports, do not make you go “WOW!!!”
While we’re on the topic, one thing that has really made me stand up and yell “WOW!!” has been the value these young NBA teams have ATS.
Did you know?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in 11th place in the Western Conference. They are 5-0 ATS
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in 7th place in the Eastern Conference. They are 4-1 ATS
The New Orleans Hornets are in 10th place in the Western Conference. They are 3-2 ATS
The Philadelphia 76ers are in 8th place in the Eastern conference. They are 3-1 ATS
Now, I am not one to use ATS numbers to justify a bet, but the numbers speak for themselves. The best VALUE in the NBA, currently, is on the young, feisty dogs.
The compressed, back to back scheduling that was the result of the extended lockout, is starting to get to these old, (FAVORED), veteran NBA teams, and we are only FIVE games into the season! Let’s review the evidence:
- 12/28/11: San Antonio 115 Los Angeles Clippers 90
12/29/11: San Antonio 85 Houston Rockets 105
- 12/27/11: Boston 107 Miami 115
12/28/11: Boston 78 New Orleans 97
- 12/28/11: New York 78 Golden State 92
12/29/11: New York 82 Los Angeles Lakers 99
- 12/30/11: Phoenix 93 New Orleans 78
12/31/11: Phoenix 97 Oklahoma City 107
Say what you want about injuries, the matchups, etc… GOOD teams in the NBA win the second leg of back to backs. Ask the Chicago Bulls. Ask the Denver Nuggets.
I’m not taking anything away from any of the teams listed above, but I do want to say: If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and sounds like a duck …. Yup, you guessed it …. It’s a duck!
Older, veteran teams that have great/popular legacies (Celtics, Spurs, Knicks, Lakers) are ALWAYS going to be overvalued. Favorites or not. Spreads are made to reflect play on the court as much as they are designed to drive action from the betting public to a certain side.
Not every NBA gambler is aware of how daunting NBA back to backs are for the veteran players. The information is not hidden; all you have to do is log on to NBA.com and check out the specific team’s schedule. But, if you are Average Joe, Out-of-Town Owen, or Drunk Dannny — and happen to find yourself in a Las Vegas Sportsbook itching to bet on the Spurs -1 (-110) @ Houston on December 29th because “THEY ARE THE SPURS” or “THE SPURS ARE ONLY FAVORED BY ONE!?” you’re going to be making a donation to the casinos of America. If you make that assessment AFTER you discover they are on the second leg of a ROAD back-to-back, then that’s a discussion for another day.
ROAD B2B + Veteran team = Stay away. Team Health > Winning a regular season game
This is a marathon, not a sprint. Regardless, I’m taking the young legs in this 26 mile race, despite their talent or ability to win games.
You want to lay points on an old team that has to play 93 offensive and 93 defensive possessions a night, 66 different times, in a 130 day span? No thanks.
The young dogs (WAS, SAC, PHI, MIN, DET) don’t need any motivation to give 100% every single night. Most of the players on these rosters are all playing for contracts, and will treat every game like it’s the playoffs. When you bet on a young dog, you are guaranteed to get their best effort. When you bet on a Vet favorite on the second leg of a B2B, I cannot validate a bet because I just don’t know what team will show up.
The young dogs each have future/present stars; therefore, they will ALWAYS have value.
WAS: John Wall, JaVelle McGee
SAC: Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Ferdette, Marcus Thornton
PHI: Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams
MIN: Ricky Rubio, Kevin Love
DET: Brandon Knight, Greg Monroe
The “Public” does not like the young dogs. In the public’s eyes, these teams stink and will rarely cover vs good teams. That may or may not be true, but when you bet the young dogs, you are getting the best BANG for your BUCK for the reasons listed above.
This is the year to cash in on the young, talented NBA teams with bad records. They have stars, if you want to believe it or not … they just don’t happen to be on SportsCenter every night like the public-perceived ones. Unlike last place teams in other sports, they can COMPETE.
As the NBA product continues to grow, ratings go up, and season tickets sell out, fans are going to realize, “Hey, those 0-5 Wizards aren’t that bad. Hell, they are fun to watch too.”
The second the public realizes this: POOF, value gone.
Make your money NOW. Anticipation is EVERYTHING.
When you saw WWE’s Stone Cold Steve Austin inflict the illustrious “Stunner” for the first time, did you cheer? Did you stand up? Did you smile?
Maybe.
You know what you did? You tuned in again the following week, and so did everyone else you knew and/or talked to about it.
First come, first serve when you’re gambling on the NBA. Don’t wait for the young superstars on “bad” teams to drop their first ‘Stunner’ before you act on it.
Look out behind you!
It’s the Young Guns …
AND THEY’VE GOT A CHAIR!!!!!!!!!!
