Seeking value: Wildcard weekend in the NFC
Detroit @ New Orleans
Line: New Orleans -10.5, O/U 59.5
Is this finally the week the Saints ATS dominance in the dome comes to an end?
Has there been a hotter team entering the postseason than the New Orleans Saints? Drew Brees closed his historic season in style with 7 straight games of 300+ passing yards leading his team to a blistering 8-0 ATS mark in the Superdome this year. More impressive than the team’s wallet fattening home record was their 11-3 ATS record when listed as a favorite meaning bookmakers like myself never ratcheted the spread high enough to slow down the onslaught of Saints money. When these teams met for Sunday night football on December 4, the Lions outgained the high octane Saints 466 to 438 but were done in by 11 penalties totaling 107 yards. The Lions possess firepower capable of covering Saturday night if they don’t self destruct under the immense pressure of playing in the NFL’s most hostile environment. As far as the total is concerned, 59 is going to be among the highest you’ll ever see in a playoff game but for good reason. Keep in mind with a number this high any drought of 4-5 minutes can put the total on life support since an avg of 14 pts a quarter still means you’ll come up short. Value doesn’t present itself often in playoff games and using a season’s worth of data to derive the correct spread and total for this game makes me believe these are great lines for 2 way action. If anything value may be on the side of the Lions but it takes a steel stomach to step in front of the Saints freight train in their own building.
Atlanta @ New York Giants
Line: New York -3, O/U 47
Can Michael Turner give the Falcons the balance offensively to slow the Giants pass rush?
Watching the Giants Sunday night it was hard to fathom this team needed to win their regular season finale just to get into the playoffs. However, the joy of the 2nd season in the NFL makes everything that happened the first 17 weeks entirely moot. New York closed the season 4-1 ATS indicating an undervalued quality down the stretch but their resounding win over Dallas in the season finale probably squelched value for this upcoming weekend. Atlanta didn’t exactly encounter murderer’s row to close their season so its hard to gauge the Falcons real capabilities based on a few resounding wins over bottom feeders. Atlanta ran off a streak of 7 straight unders in the middle of the year against good competition before they closed the season with 4 straight overs eclipsing deflated totals against the likes of Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa. The only team with a winning record the Falcons faced during their last 4 games was New Orleans and the Falcons mustered a robust 16 pts in the Superdome. If Atlanta is going to be competitive, they need to stymie the Giants balanced attack by pounding Michael Turner to keep Eli on the sidelines. New York has become much more balanced on offense with the healthy returns of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs meaning they’re no longer a past first offense. Value comes in different forms and while 2 points have been lost for those looking to go under I still believe this is an inflated total and the value play Sunday could mean points will be at a premium.
