College basketball conference projections
With conference play about to get started tonight, what better way to preview the nuts and bolts of college hoops than with power projections for the major conferences. I’ll be adding a conference or two a night until we’ve covered all lined conferences. Like always, comments and criticism welcomed and encouraged.
1. North Carolina
(14-2) in my opinion the most complete team in the league with the best assortment of athletes. Problem for the Heels is they’re prone to losing games they shouldn’t but if the ACC gets a #1 seed come March, it will come from Chapel Hill.
2. Duke
(12-4) Duke has impressed me with some nice non-conference wins but what has me concerned is how they were outclassed in Columbus. Coach K again lacks the athletes to make a push for the natl title but in a down year for the conference they should finish 2nd.
3. Virginia
(11-5) I’ve always been a huge Tony Bennet fan and even bigger one now that he has athletes to play his system. Mike Scott deserves more natl attention than he garners and their defensive intensity makes for a tough out. I worry about their inability to score for stretches however even with those question marks they’ll find their way into the big dance.
4. Florida St
(10-6) It almost feels like a travesty that a team has to finish 4th behind the top three teams. FSU is not the same without Singleton but they’re a group who plays lock down defense every single night. Bigger question with the Noles is how many games they lose late because of Leonard Hamilton coaching blunders.
5. Miami (Fla)
(9-7) Arguably one of the most talented starting 5’s in the league the Hurricanes lack depth and leadership. Coach Larranaga gives them a calming presence behind the bench and will need to get the best out of Grant, Johnson, and Scott to achieve better results.
6. Virginia Tech
(9-7) I’m still not sure what to make of Coach Greenberg’s squad but when in doubt peg them a few games over .500 and call them a bubble team right? There are no bad non-conference losses however there arent any noticeable wins either. Look for them to steal a game against Duke or UNC yet lose somewhere most experts will pencil in as a W.
7. NC State
(8-8) When you don’t play defense, your ceiling is greatly limited. CJ Leslie is an elite talent but I’m not sure he’s surrounded by anyone that has his ability. The hallmark for Mark Gottfried teams at Alabama were win at home and lose on the road so until further notice those are my expectations here.
8. Clemson
(6-10) Milton Jennings isn’t healthy for the Tigers and it showed during their recent trip to Hawaii. Coach Brownell doesn’t have a ton of talent and it will be exposed throughout ACC play. Maybe the Tigers steal a win but I wouldn’t be optimistic about their chances.
9. Georgia Tech
(6-10) Good luck Brian Gregory and getting the current mix of talent to be ACC relevant in 2012. Glen Rice Jr never saw a shot he didn’t like and beyond that this team seems to value the individual first. 6 wins could be generous however the bottom of the league really is that bad.
10. Boston College
(4-12) Ummm this team was a home underdog to Penn St, yea that’s all I need to say about the boys in Chestnut Hill.
11. Wake Forest
(4-12) If Chris Paul relies on Tim Duncan and Al Fariq Aminu the Deacons can be excellent this season. Oh wait, scratch that and Dino Gaudio won’t miss his job in Winston-Salem
12. Maryland
(3-13) The non-con record looks great at 8-3 and you begin to believe the Terps can compete in the ACC. Then you dig deeper and realize they’ve beaten no one with substance. College Park will be relevant again for hoops but it won’t be in 2012.
1. Ohio St
(15-3) hands down best team in the conference with depth and experience at every position they will end up with a top seed in the big dance if Sullinger can stay healthy
2. Wisconsin
(13-5) defensive intensity makes winning road games much more plausible but prolonged scoring droughts will cost them a winnable road game somewhere in the conference.
3. Michigan
(12-6) finally a team ready to make Coach Beilein a winner again but erratic post play could pose problems against the elite teams in the conference. Tim Hardaway Jr is an elite talent the question is can he raise the level of play for all those around him?
4. Michigan St
(11-7) losses to UNC & Duke out of the gate could have fractured this team but they’ve righted the ship and been red hot against cupcakes. They have a very manageable start to the conference schedule which should keep momentum in green and white
5. Indiana
(9-9) young teams experience amazing home/road dichotomy and IU will be no different; expect marquee home wins and occasional clunkers on the highway although the talent is there to compete for elite status in the conference with the continued emergence of Cody Zeller in the post.
6. Purdue
(9-9) I’m still not ready to buy into Hummel’s supporting cast although Painter will get them to play above their heads…enough to make the Big Ten’s middle tier
7. Northwestern
(9-9) the Cats still can’t beat physical teams but their scoring balance makes them dangerous from the perimeter. Baylor exposed them in Evanston and showed too many shortcomings for me to believe they’re elite however the school’s first NCAA bid is a realistic goal.
8. Illinois
(7-11) coach Weber teams lose games they shouldn’t but rarely win games they shouldn’t. Talent is mediocre, scoring is lacking, and an NCAA birth probably a reach in 2012
9. Nebraska
(6-12) first trip through the Big Ten could come with surprises if the Huskers can protect their homecourt. Road wins will be tough to come by and a winning home record would be considered a rousing success
10. Iowa
(6-12) the first 7 game stretch is awful and the Hawkeyes realistically could start 0-7. If they aren’t downtrodden, potential exists to finish strong over the back half and build momentum for 2013.
11. Minnesota
(5-13) reality will hit hard for the Gophers without Mbakwe to defend the post. Don’t be fooled by a gaudy non-conference record laden with empty calories and cupcakes
12. Penn St
(4-14) 4 wins could even be generous for this bunch. There’s no elite scorer like Tailor Battle to steal games this season so finishing anywhere but the cellar would be a huge moral victory.
BIG EAST
1. Syracuse
(14-4) still untested outside the state of New York sans a win in Raleigh over NCSU, Syracuse has still improved a ton since the beginning of the season and a very favorable unbalanced schedule means big things for the Orange in 2012 not only in the Big East but also in the big dance.
2. Uconn
(13-5) offensively the team has shown marked progress since their struggles in the Bahamas. They may have the best inside/outside combo in the country and their tenacious half court defense is vastly underrated meaning they will have a chance to win every night they hit the hardwoods.
3. Marquette
(12-6) hands down the most physical team in the league with outstanding guards committed to defense. Their inability to shoot consistently will doom them from time to time however their defensive tenacity will keep them in every game
4. Georgetown
(12-6) arguably one of the biggest surprises in the conference thus far I’ll admit this record could be a reach. Ability to distribute the ball and and execution of an uptempo Princeton style offense makes them formidable both home and away.
5. West Virginia
(12-6) Kevin Jones and Truck have stepped into the role WVU desperately lacked since Da’Sean Butler donned Mountaineer gold. WVU is one of the best rebounding teams in the league I’d just be worried their lack of a tertiary scorer will pose problems in conference.
6. Pittsburgh
(12-6) Until Travon Woodall can come back and stabilize the backcourt this is an extremely aggressive prediction. Pitt had 2 non-conference home losses vs Wagner and LBSU which should wake this team up although it could be indicative of bigger problems facing the Panthers as they head into conference play
7. Louisville
(10-8) One of the most overrated teams in the nation as of right now the Cardinals willl have multiple chances to prove me wrong within the next week. Pitino’s bunch offers a true balanced attack without any ‘me first’ players on the roster. If they can somehow get all their pieces healthy before the season is over placing them here within the league will come back to haunt me
8. Cincinnati
(9-9) Adversity can either break a team apart or get everyone to rally for one another. The Cats haven’t faced stellar competition since the brawl but the 4 guard line-up is pushing tempo and finding ways to score. If they can assimilate Gates back into the mix, Mick Cronin’s bunch has enough talent to surprise a few people and get into the dance.
9. Villanova
(7-11) Jay Wright teams of the past are distant memories with limited depth and weaponry this year. The team’s only bad loss was to Santa Clara in Anaheim but the more troubling part is the other 4 non-conference losses were all by double digits. If this group can find an identity 7 is plausible but the ceiling in Philly isn’t much higher than that
10. Seton Hall
(7-11) Yes, I’m skeptical of this team and even putting them here felt like a reach. Non-conference wins breed confidence but I can’t find one win against a side other than St Joe’s I believe gets their name called on selection Sunday
11. Notre Dame
(7-11) GL Irish faithful competing without Abromaitis and the scoring punch he brought to the table. Defensively they can grind with anyone but against team’s with athletes even a tremendous home court advantage wont save Coach Brey.
12. Rutgers
(6-12) This team isn’t all that talented however they’ll fight every time they hit the court. Gone are the days of the RAC as a daunting HCA however it’s still not an easy place to steal a road win.
13. Depaul
(5-13) Coach Purnell has begun changing the culture around the program but rebuilding the Demons completely will take time. Depaul needs to focus on small goals this year like getting to day 2 of the conference tournament while next year they can strive to be .500 and avg over 4,000 fans a night in the 15k+ AllState Arena.
14. South Florida
(5-13) Don’t expect high octane hoops in Tampa, not from this Bulls team. They showed promise in upending Cleveland St at home although there isnt nearly enough scoring to win games consistently against conference brethren
15. Providence
(4-14) This was a Friar team I had a real hard time gauging early for the sole reason they haven’t played anyone except Fairfield. If they can build on early season success, this is probably too low even though the talent on the current roster says this is about where they belong.
16. St John’s
(4-14) Picked by many as a conference sleeper before the year started, the Red Storm has been crushed by defections and academic issues over the last few months. Steve Lavin has his work cut out for him in Jamaica since his roster is neither deep nor talented which can be a dangerous combo when running through the daunting Big East schedule
