What makes a wiseguy?
There isn’t just one trait or magical formula that makes someone a successful gambler. In a week long series I’ll dissect some of the attributes, skills, and lessons the best gamblers in the world have learned to make them consistent winners while the rest of us just dream about 53 percent.
A small win is better than a big loss (Part 5)
Who doesn’t want the big score when betting sports? Whether it’s a huge dog moneyline, 7 team parlay, or a longshot in the futures market the reality is opportunities to bet small and cash large are few and far between. Seeing value isn’t anticipating tickets with astronomical payouts cashing but rather giving yourself a positive expectation every time you place a wager. By betting a 100-1 shot to win the NCAA title (see Xavier preseason odds) the methodology is the Musketeers only need to secure a sweet 16 birth to insure a return on investment. Wiseguys don’t look to win big all the time instead they strive to find angles for winning consistently. There are points where the sharpest gamblers take a position early in the week laying -2.5 on an NFL favorite knowing the price will hit 3 and allow them to “side” the game with zero risk. What I mean by siding a game is you end up risking 2.2 units in total with full understanding the max risk is .1 units with potential upside of winning a full unit if the game falls 3. Ideally the dream scenario is to lay the favorite -2.5 and grab the dog +3.5 in the pros since 15.8% of games fall exactly on a field goal (courtesy @wagerminds) and you’d only need to hit 1 out 20 to make this arbitrage approach profitable. If you can consistently beat the market and grab the best price and back-up your position, risk is mitigated with earning potential maximized.
Understanding the market (Part 4)
Being able to recognize value is the name of the game for professional handicappers although it’s easier said than done. In order to find spreads that offer wagering opportunities, wiseguys know when to make their move because they understand exactly what the betting market tells them. The primary investing strategy among professionals is getting the best of the number since over time beating the market consistently by a few points will directly correlate to your winning percentage. Value comes at different times in the lifecycle of a pointspread and depending on which side a wiseguy is on he can manipulate the number himself or let the public do his bidding for him. Bettors will go to great lengths to move the market in their direction and use tactics like dummying a price on Monday when lower limits have greater impact on a line before coming back over the top later in the week when a spread has climbed to the desired target. Every bet elicits a reaction from bookmakers and unfortunately we don’t always know the true position of sharps right away. By moving the market in their direction, wiseguys don’t actually end up paying -120 for a half point instead they’ll pay a small fraction for a key number using market knowledge to their advantage. Bowl games are a great example of this phenomenon because with so much time for the number to take shape, wiseguys beat the spread into shape with countless pump fakes before kickoff until they’re ready to make their final move. I can’t express to the novice handicapper enough this is why it’s so important not to blindly chase line moves assuming sharp steam will lead you to the window.
Knowing when to make your move (Part 3)
When you’re looking to make a major purchase on a brand new car do you willingly pay 6k over sticker price if another dealer will only charge you 3? One of the most frequent mistakes novice handicappers make is laying the worst of the number because he hasn’t given himself the outlets to be successful nor is he taking the steps necessary to be an informed consumer. In addition to recognizing value, wiseguys know where and when to grab the best price. The sports betting marketplace is fluid and spreads are always moving based on the supply and demand of bettors which means anticipating where a number will settle is invaluable. Wiseguys understand price is the key determinant in making a wager and they respect the number so much so that if their buy price is +3.5 they won’t take a side at +3 just to avoid gambler’s remorse. In the betting equation juice is a bookmaker’s best friend so if a professional can’t find the preferred line he’ll save the -110 for another day but know whenever he does have the desired target in his sites there won’t be a split second of hesitation before unloading.
Perception is not reality (Part 2)
Value in sportsbetting comes in the most unusual places and wiseguys have a keen eye for finding pure gold in another man’s garbage. The casual bettor places too much emphasis on what he’s seen last and becomes fixated on betting the “better team” rather than seeking value in the pointspread. There’s no sport where the herd mentality resonates louder than in pro football since the knee jerk reaction is to believe what you saw most recently will be indicative of what you’ll see the upcoming week. However, that upward surge or major ATS losing skid is built into the point spread and a gambler looking to “ride the hot team” or “fade the cold team” ends up paying a premium which often backfires. It’s important to note that if you believe a team has quit (Jacksonville & Tampa Bay) the same rules will not apply. Hindsight is always 20/20 but the New York Giants were a prime example of perception not equaling reality this past Sunday when they played the Redskins.
The G-men, fresh off back to back covers against then undefeated Green Bay and a surging Dallas side, opened as 7 pt favorites against the Redskins. Wiseguys quickly recognized an inflated tariff knowing the Giants thrive as an underdog but flounder as a favorite under cough Coughlin (1-3 ATS mark as chalk of -3.5 or more in 2011). Going from the role of hunter to the hunted is one of the most undervalued fade angles a novice considers and can be hugely profitable if employed correctly. While this strategy won’t lead you to the sexiest sides each week, fading the trendy team offers value for wiseguys to bury a side. If you think the Giants were alone as inflated chalk this past weekend look no further than the Texans, Cardinals, and Packers as overvalued counterparts. Keep in mind fading teams blindly won’t result in success so recognizing empty calories at the buffet that is the daily sports schedule allows you to keep your figure, preferably in the black.
Week 16 overvalued candidates: Kansas City, Washington, Carolina. Undervalued: Jets
Information (Part 1)
Gamblers with the best information put themselves in a position to win regularly. The implication isn’t that professionals know things the general public doesn’t but rather they understand the inherent value in certain stats and situations directly correlated to each team’s on field success. An informed handicapper is equipped with the skilled eye to find value in the daily schedule, props, and futures as a result of his meticulous preparation. In the information age paralysis by analysis is common when bettors spend time scrutinizing the sharp side, fading the public, or dwelling on obscure trends that have very little relevance to on field performance. There is no substitute for knowing the teams involved in every game before you even consider stepping to the window to make a wager. While some of this can sound daunting seasoned bettors know it takes hard work to cultivate the advanced thought process required for long term success. Here are a few questions you should ask yourself before placing a bet because if you can’t answer these with confidence based on your information, it might be time to wager on another game.
1) How will this game be won?
2) Who did my team play last and who do they play next?
3) Is there any history to this game? (Rivalry, revenge, coaching changes)
4) What are the spread and total telling me about expected pace/tempo and who does it favor?
