Situations, sandwiches, & spots: College hoops handicapping 101
Many of you know him as @stuckey2 on twitter and he will join us every week sharing college hoops handicapping advice as well as breaking down the situations, sandwiches, and spots he relies on during the season to make him so successful.
Written by @stuckey2
I don’t know about you, but a few years back when I was in college I can tell you a certain professor wouldn’t have my full attention after a weekend bender or before a big night out. A class in between both? Might as well not even show up. This can occur with players, teams, and programs if we just replace class with games.
If a team upsets a top ten team at home and then has to go on the road to play an inferior opponent, there’s always a tendency to come out flat. Same thing with a team that has a giant game on deck (whether it be a top 5 team or an in state rival) might not show up with full focus due to the look-ahead. A sandwich occurs when a team fits into both situations…something I always keep my eye out for.
So, lets get into some good situational spots for Saturday so you can see some of my thinking at work:
UNLV
I have been waiting for this game since last March when UNLV was run out of the gym in the opening round of the NCAA tournament. McCamey and Davis came out white hot and built a 25 point lead before you could even check to see who you had moving on in your bracket. Illinois comes in grossly overrated sporting an undefeated record and ranked in the top 20 with their marquee win over a Gonzaga team which doesn’t look nearly as good with each passing day. The Rebels will be salivating to exact revenge and they have the bigs inside to control Leonard and get it done. Mike Moser is having an All American type year for the Rebels and keep in mind this game is not on campus in Champaign and will be played at the United Center negating any true home court advantage for the Illini.
New Mexico
The Lobos are another team hailing from the Mountain West taking on a power conference team in a great situational spot Saturday. I also can contest Oklahoma State finds themselves in a semi sandwich spot here as well coming off two hard fought games: a come from behind win at Missouri State and a 6 point loss at Pitt. They now come back home to a play a smoking hot Lobos squad with a trip to Tuscaloosa on deck. My money says they come out flat and with a lack of focus that gives UNM a situational advantage with the horses to win this outright behind the dynamic Drew Gordon.
Notre Dame
Hold your nose here as ND has been bad and they no longer have the services of TimAbromaitis but this is a CLASSIC letdown spot as Indiana just beat the number 1 team in the country at home on a buzzer beater. The Hoosiers are living the good life this week hearing their praise sung from anyone and everyone in the college basketball world. They should come out super flat considering they are a young team unfamiliar with handling success. ND will have the motivation here as this is a big in state rivalry and they have been written off as inferior competition all week. The Irish are a young team that should come in with a little confidence after two wins (albeit over two bad teams) and a chip on their shoulder making them a very live dog.
NC State
I have always been a fan of fading the new number 1 if their first game in this role is on the road against a team with a pulse. I think this is a good spot to fade the Cuse who are playing their FIRST true road game of the year. Not surprising considering Boeheim prefers to stay in the state of New York until Christmas time and locking up a state championship against SUNY schools before taking his show on the road. More of a hunch here but I feel as though you’ll get line value with the Pack and we could see the second number 1 go down in as many weeks.
Detroit
While we are visiting this type of spot, I will also be taking a long look at Detroit who catches an undefeated Miss State team who will come in overvalued also playing their FIRST road game. Getting Holman assimilated back into the lineup over the last few games will be big for this one as he will be needed to deal with State’s big front line. I think the Titans get it done Saturday and protect their home court.
