What to consider before betting the bowls
written by Matt Lindeman [ twitter @lindetrain ]
As we embark upon another college football postseason and make our best determination as to who will be studs and who will be duds in the coming weeks, there are three key factors we must keep in mind to effectively cap the bowls:
Coaching
There’s no greater factor when trying to determine a team’s mental state than the man in charge, as coaching becomes all the more significant in the postseason.
Take a look back and you’ll find some of the biggest bowl head-scratchers over the past five years have come when an inept coach leads the favorite—and conversely, some of the most impressive performances have been the result of a distinct coaching advantage. Before coming to the conclusion your team will or won’t come to play, make sure you have a clear understanding of that team’s tendencies under the current head honcho. Nothing is more agonizing than laying double digits with a Tommy Bowden-led Clemson team who inevitably gets smoked by bowl newbie Kentucky, or fading Chris Petersen and Boise while watching them steamroll an inferior Utah bunch.
While there are exceptions (even Petersen and Nick Saban have fallen victim to bowl upsets over the past few years), having a capable leader on your side will be a significant advantage from a motivational standpoint.
Bowl History & Location
Highly underutilized in the effort to cap bowl motivation is a team’s recent bowl history. What better indicator of how a team will approach an upcoming matchup then recent performances in the postseason? While one team might be hungry to avenge a poor showing in their previous bowl appearance, another may be complacent after cruising the last time out.
Just as recent successes or disappointment can fuel different levels of motivation on a week-to-week basis in the regular season, teams can find themselves determined or disinterested from one bowl game to the next. Last season, Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes tattooed Arkansas to exorcise some bowl demons against the SEC, while Big Game Bob helped the Sooners silence the critics with their first BCS win in eight years; a week earlier, Nebraska found themselves lackadaisical for four quarters after cruising in the same bowl a year before.
Along those same lines, location can play a significant role in a team’s interest. If you know full well that the Atlanta bar scene won’t live up to Stephen Garcia’s expectations, how can you anticipate he leads the Gamecocks to victory in the Chik-fil-A Bowl? Undesirable locales, poor attendance, and early start times are just a few things that can suck the excitement out of the postseason for even some of the nation’s elite squads; meanwhile, a fun and inviting atmosphere can provide a much-needed spark. It’s crucial to factor in how players may respond to the place they’re headed.
*Note: this approach is best applied to non-BCS bowls, as circumstances tend to change on the big stage; BCS virgins are 3-8 ATS over the past four seasons.
Opponent
At times, the opponent alone can be enough to gauge (or lose) a team’s interest in the football game. As mentioned above, Nebraska took a beating at the hands of Washington in last season’s Holiday Bowl—and it’d be tough to argue their lack of determination didn’t have to do with them already handing the Huskies a severe beating just three months earlier. The opportunity to take on a sizzling hot Texas A&M team in Cowboys Stadium was enough to catch LSU’s attention after missing out on a BCS bid with a loss to Arkansas in the regular season finale, and they promptly handed the Aggies a 41-24 spanking.
The right matchup can generate just enough buzz to get disappointed squads amped about the postseason, just as a horrendous matchup can lead to a team packing it in early. If you must fade a team in their postseason appearance, be sure it’s with an opponent who is boring enough to catch them napping; otherwise, you may as well pitch that ticket of yours in the trash.
